The Help Sweeps SAG and the TV Winners Almost Stay the Exact Same!

Tonight the Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) held an incredibly boring ceremony.  The show started with my favorite part actor's talking about how they got their start and their SAG card, and none of the stories were neither funny nor touching (save Damien Bichir).

The first set of winners announced were for Outstanding Supporting Acting performances in a Motion Picture, the wins were the rubber stamped Christopher Plummer (Beginners) and Octavia Spencer (The Help).  Plummer was witty and charming as usual.  While Spencer's speech was heartfelt, and you could tell she was genuinely humbled by the honor; she is true actor who has graced television and film countless times, and I am happy for her.

In the TV Comedy section, the exact same winners as last year won again.  Best Comedy Ensemble was Modern Family, Best Actor was Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock and Best Actress was Betty White in Hot in Cleveland.  In the TV Drama categories Boardwalk Empire took home two trophies one for Best Drama Ensemble and one for Best Drama Actor, Steve Buscemi.  Boardwalk also won both of these awards last year.  I felt as though I were back in 2011 while watching this portion, except Alec Baldwin showed up this year.  I never thought i would say this, but i am getting tired of the same people winning at these award shows.  Do the voters even pay attention?  I also never thought I would say this, but Thank you Ryan Murphy for American Horror Story, your "creativity" brought the only fresh win for the evening in the television categories, Jessica Lange won Best Female Actor.

The end of the evening brought the most shake up in the system.  Viola Davis won Outstanding Lead Female Actor in a Motion Picture for The Help.  This makes Davis the frontrunner for the Oscar.  I should have known it was too soon to honor Clooney with a second Oscar; he lost Outstanding Lead Actor in in Motion Picture to Jean Dujardin from The Artist.  Dujardin has been a very close second for a long time, and this puts him ahead of the game, and makes the category a little more exciting.

I was happy that SAG stepped away from honoring an ensemble they thought would win Best Picture, and choose a film that had a truly amazing ensemble, The Help.  The Help went three for four tonight, besting all of the other multiple nominated films.  The Help is truly about the acting, and I am glad SAG responded.

Screen Actor's Guild Awards Predictions

Film 

Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Artist 
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Help 
Midnight in Paris

Each film has a great ensemble, but this is between The Help and The Artist (weakest nominee going on the point of the award).  The Help should win, but The Artist is on a role with award shows, it has the Globe, the PGA, and the DGA.  I think The Help will still win this, and prove that everyone is not a mindless drone, but The Artist is right on its heels.  The dark dark horse could be Bridesmaids, but a film like that has not won since The Birdcage, when SAG meant less than it does now.

Prediction: The Help
Very Close Second: The Artist
Spoiler: Bridesmaids

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Leading Role
George Clooney, The Descendants
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball


Will Clooney win a second Oscar in the acting categories?  I would have thought his second would come in directing or writing, but it could happen here.  Clooney is solid in this film , but was much better in Up in the Air.  Many people think he will not win, and The Artist will bring Dujardin along for the ride.  I think he has a shot, but my gut is going with my spoiler Brad Pitt.  If Clooney wanted to I think he would help his friend out, and I think it's possible.


Prediction: George Clooney
Very Close Second: Jean Dujardin
Spoiler: Brad Pitt


Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin


I think Viola Davis is going to win and make this category far more interesting.  I could be way off base here.  Whoever wins tonight has the lead in this race.  I think SAG will go for Davis, but they could also stamp Streep as the winner.  I am doing more gut predicting here.  Williams is a spoiler, but I do think they will pick her, although it would go with the tradition of crowning a young pretty girl.

Prediction: Viola Davis

Very Close Second: Meryl Streep

Spoiler: Michelle Williams

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Supporting Role
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

This is simply Plummer's to lose, I can't see anyone else winning.

Lock to Win: Plummer

If and only if he loses: Nick Nolte

Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

I think like Plummer Spencer has this award sewn up, but Melissa McCarthy could be a spoiler.  I doubt the spoiling will happen, but her performance is different amongst this group and she would have a lot of support with this group.

Prediction: Octavia Spencer

Spoiler: Melissa McCarthy

Outstanding Performance By An Ensemble In A Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Dexter
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife

TV is harder to predict, Dexter is out! That was was easy.  I do not think Game of Thrones has a chance.  This is between the remaining three.  This is Breaking Bad's first time here, and it has a strong chance.  Empire is the returning champ though and they are classic repeat offenders.  Yet then there is the great show The Good Wife which has an incredible ensemble.  This category may be the hardest to predict, but here it goes:

Prediction: Boardwalk Empire (repeat)

Very Close Second: Breaking Bad

Spoiler: The Good Wife

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Drama Series
Patrick J. Adams, Suits
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire 
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall, Dexter

I had never really heard of Suits (to be honest) and Michael C. Hall is out.  I am glad Chandler is nominated, but I do not see him winning without the ensemble nominated.  I think this will go to Cranston, with Buscemi close behind.

Prediction: Bryan Cranston

Very Close Second: Steve Buscemi

Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Drama Series
Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law
Glenn Close, Damages
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Julianna Margules, The Good Wife
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

This race is between two women Lange and Marguilles.  If they vote on name alone then Lange wins, but my gut says its a Marguilles threepeat!

Prediction:  Julianna Marguilles

Very Close Second: Jessica Lange

Outstanding Performance By An Ensemble In A Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Glee
Modern Family
The Office

Prediction: Modern Family (no contest)

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Steve Carell, The Office
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Baldwin has not lost this award in many many years, but he will for the first time this year.  Carell could win for his send off, they can be sentimental.  I think one of the Modern Family guys will win, and my gut goes with Burrell.

Prediction: Ty Burrell

Second: Steve Carell

Spoiler: Eric Stonstreet

Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Comedy Series
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot In Cleveland

Tina Fey and Edie Falco are out.  That leaves the Modern Family gals and Ms. White.  White wins for reading the phone these days, but my gut goes they will pick a Modern Family gal, namely Vergara , they love over the top performances.

Prediction: Sofia Vergara

Very Close Second: Betty White

Spoiler: Julie Bowen

Award Shows: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

At the moment we are the middle of the busiest season for award shows.  This week the nominations for three major film awards are announced: the Broadcast Film Critics, Screen Actor's Guild (SAG), and the Golden Globes.  Starting January 15th the Globes will kick this off.  Mixed in the month of January and the winter months is the People's Choice Awards, and the Grammy Awards.  Most of the time people who do not follow award shows ask the question, "How do they pick the nominees?"  Each Academy or group has their own process, and some award shows are better than others.

I have always been a competitive person, and I usually jockey for my favorite films, performers, TV shows to be nominated, or win.  I would prefer win, but I can't always get what I want.  Many critics and award show experts state within their respective area of experience that there are some years when these Academies or group get it right, and other when they get it wrong.  I think award shows are incredibly interesting for several reasons 1) they highlight some of the best work in music, film, television etc (most of the time) and I love the arts 2) competition is fun! In the end the reward for the people involved should be intrinsic, and when actors or musicians feels as though they do their best they are motivated to do more and continue their "best" work or advance themselves further.  The reality is that award shows exist and here is what some of them do well and not so well.

This past year at 2011 Emmy Awards I was both pleasantly surprised with the Emmy nominees and the winners.  The role of an award show should be too honor the best, not the shows with the highest ratings like NCIS, but quality programming.  There were a few people who should have made the cut, but overall this was a solid list.  The Emmy's have continued to uphold this strength within the last few years.  How do they do it? According to the Emmy website "The members are divided into peer groups, determined by specific areas of expertise within the industry. For example, performers are in one peer group, makeup artists and hair stylists are in another, and camera and videotape operators are in another."  Once these groups narrow down the nominees the people in the major categories submit tapes and people watch and vote for the winners.  Seems simple, people watch the material and vote on it, thus providing everyone insight into both television shows and performances.  Sounds simple, right?  Well sometimes thing do not work out that way.


The Emmy Awards have continued to peak in terms of honoring quality material.  Television actors and shows are honored at both the SAG Awards and Golden Globes, but the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS) has never relied on these nominations to determine who should become a nominee.  People like Margo Martindale from Justified and Archie Panjabi from The Good Wife never received  SAG or Globe nominations but went on to win their respective category for quality work.  The Emmy Awards are also held in September while SAG and the Globes are now both typically in January.


The Academy Awards have a similar process to the Emmy awards to determine their nominees.  According to the Academy website In late December ballots and copies of the Reminder List of Eligible Releases are mailed to around 6000 active members. For most categories, members from each of the branches vote to determine the nominees only in their respective categories (i.e. only directors vote for directors, writers for writers, actors for actors, etc.); there are some exceptions though in the case of certain categories, like Foreign Film, Documentary and Animated Feature Film in which movies are selected by special screening committees made up of members from all branches. In the special case of Best Picture, all voting members are eligible to select the nominees for that category. Foreign films must include English subtitles, and each country can only submit one film per year." The Academy Awards have done a good job honoring the "best" films" and "best" work for a film, but unlike the Emmy's that have improved  throughout the last couple of years the Academy Awards have had good and bad cycles.


One thing I have notices that hangs in the balance every year within the film industry is that each precursor tends to have an effect on the Academy Awards.  Adam Waldowski at goldderby.com stated " The only film to win Best Picture at the Oscars without at least contending for Best Ensemble at SAG was "Braveheart" in 1995 (the first year for this guild award). Of the 16 SAG champs, eight went on to win the Oscar, including "The King's Speech" last year. Among this year's leading contenders, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," "Hugo" and "War Horse" were shut out by SAG.  This statistic may mean the Best Picture winner is almost predetermined now.   Adam stated "SAG also does a good job predicting acting nominees as well.  Last year 17 out of 20 SAG contenders lined up with the Oscars -- only Robert Duvall ("Get Low"),Hilary Swank ("Conviction") and Mila Kunis ("Black Swan") missed out on Oscar bids -- while in 2009 all of the SAG nominees but Diana Kruger ("Inglorious Basterds") vied for Oscars."  The critics award set the stage for some films to gain traction, while the Globes, and the guild awards seem to help guide and rubber stamp some nominees.  


The problematic part of this is that it appears as though voters are less likely to determine their own nominees, and they will likely vote with a trend.  I see this happening with Jessica Chatain.  Chastain is great in all of her films, but I think she is going to be nominated for her weakest performance in The Help.  I think she deserves a nomination for Take Shelter.  This process of so many awards before the actual Oscars appears to have made voters lazy.   This has also made them more rebellious, and not in a good way.


An example of being more rebellious was last year's Best Picture winner The King's Speech.  While Speech is not a bad film, it was not the best film of 2010.  The Social Network was honored by many critics groups, some guilds, and the Globes as the best film of the year.  The older voting Academy members seemed tired of rubber stamping the critics winner and played it safe last year.  2010 was also the year of Inception, The Black Swan, and many other daring films that made a statement.  The King's Speech's win seemed to say we have the power to honor what we want (this is both a good and a bad thing).  I respect the Academy to a point because they have gone against the grain in good ways, like within the writing, acting, and technical categories.  I also think honoring films like No Country for Old Men shows progression.  I think this year will an interesting year which will define this award show for a few years to come.  At least the Oscars are not hitting bottom like the Grammy Awards.


The Grammy Awards feel lost.  This year's Album of Year nominations help to prove there is something missing. The nominees are Adele for "21",much deserved, and the rest are Rihanna's "Loud," Bruno Mars' "Doo Woops and Hooligans," Lady Gaga's "Born this Way" and The Foo Fighter "Wasting Light."  This category is supposed to represent the Best Albums not the biggest album sales.  Adele, Rihanna, Bruno Mars, and Lady Gaga albums were among the top ten highest grossing albums.  This could be a coincidence, it could be the recording Academy trying to stay with the times and compete with the Video Music Awards, or even catering to mainly younger viewers. 


According to the Grammy website nominations are determined through through this process: "record companies and individuals may submit recordings to be nominated. Nominations are made online and a physical copy of the work is sent to the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences. Once a work is entered, reviewing sessions are held, by more than 150 experts from the recording industry, to determine whether the work is eligible and entered in the correct category for official nomination.The resulting list is circulated to all NARAS members, each of whom may vote to nominate in the general field (Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist) and in no more than nine out of 30 other fields on their ballots. The five recordings that earn the most votes in each category become the nominees. There may be more than five nominees if there is a tie in the nomination process.Whereas members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are generally invited to screenings or are sent DVDs of movies nominated for Oscars, NARAS members do not receive nominated recordings."


Since people are not sent recordings it seems as though this system is the most flawed, and makes sense that most of the highest selling albums are nominated instead of lesser known artists or albums.  My main problem with this year's nominees is that not only are they not the five best albums, but they only reflect two genres of music rock and pop (and maybe some dance).  The Grammy's usually do a job of honoring the best of different genres, but this throughout the 2000s this award show has become a glorified concert with awards tacked on.  Of the major three major award shows this one is in the worst condition, and needs more than just quick fixes, like combining the male and female vocal categories in each genre.


Nothing can be perfect, there are flaws in every system.  Some worse than others.  Look at the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and their nominating The Tourist for three awards, that's bad!  The problem is award shows become political either people win for wrong reasons, or they spend large amounts of money to achieve that win (that's another subject all on it's own).  As the beginning of the award season begins all I can hope for is some fun and excitement.

Screen Actors Guild Award Predictions: Updated with Nominees and My Score

This Wednesday the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) will be announcing their nominees.  SAG has 13 awards telecast, and they honor someone with a lifetime achievement award.  This year SAG will be honoring television and film star Mary Tyler Moore.  The thing I respect about this organization is that they honor people who have done a lot in not just film, but whose careers have included a wide array of both film and television.  The most recent winners were Ernest Borgnine, Betty White, James Garner-all of whom had a lot of roles in film and television.  I am happy for Mary Tyler Moore; she is a treasure, her role in Ordinary People still haunts me.  Here are my predictions for this years nominees.

Film Awards 

Outstanding Performance by the Cast of a Motion Picture
The Artist 
Bridesmaids 
The Help
The Descendants 
Midnight in Paris 
Close Calls: Hugo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Margin Call


With them announcing earlier than the Globes this year this may be trickier.  Four of these five films have impressive casts, with big stars.  I think Bridesmaids will get in because of the sheer fact that many television actors will support their friends while voting (I could be wrong). 5 for 5: This was an easier category to predict.


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

George Clooney-The Descendants
Jean Dujardan-The Artist
Michael Fassbender-Shame (Leonardo DiCaprio-J. Edgar)
Gary Oldman-Tinkor Tailor Soldier Spy (Damien Bichir-A Better Life)
Brad Pitt-Moneyball


I am pretty sure I have three right, this is a crowded category with lots of great roles.  I would like to see Michael Shannon up there.  I think Shannon will get the Oscar nod, they way he did for Revolutionary Road.  3 for 5: The lead actor category has three locks: Clooney, Pitt and Dujardan.  DiCaprio looks stronger than people assume.  Demian Bichir came out of nowhere!  I have a feeling the Oscars will keep Leo, and replace Bichir with Michael Shannon.


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role 
Glen Close-Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis-The Help
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin 
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn


Streep, Williams, and Davis are locks.  The next two spots are anyone's guess at this moment.  I went with Theron and Close.  Theron is well liked, a past winner and nominee. Update-I think Close is out! Olsen is in! 5 for 5-This could be the five nominees.  I am still not sold on Close.


Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks-Drive (Nick Nolte-Warrior)
Ben Kingsley-Hugo (Armie Hammer-J. Edgar)
Christopher Plummer-Beginners 
Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Jonah Hill-Moneyball)


The category of veterans.  I am unsure Von Sydow and Kinsley, but I think the other three are locks.  I do not think the SAG will go for Tree of Life but I could also see Pitt as a double nominee; he is the dark horse.  The Margin Call men Spacey and Irons could sneak in here as well. 2 for 5: This category is a mess!!!!! They snubbed Brooks.  Nick Nolte is looking stronger and stronger.  I do not think Hammer of Hill will make it to the Oscars.


Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role 
Bernice Bejo-The Artist
Jessica Chastain-The Help 
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Shaileen Woodley-The Descendants (Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs)


Chastain should get in her, and I think she will get in for The Help, not any of her other films.  Woodley will most likely ride The Descendants train, but she is weak come Oscar time. 4 out 5: Woodley is done; she is not going to be taken seriously.  McTeer made it in here for Albert Nobbs.  Vanessa Redgrave is out too.


I predicted 19 out of 25.  The supporting actor category messed me, and I think it will be an interesting category to see who they nominate, but it looks as though they have Plummer poised to win the award.  I think lead actor is going to be Pitt's to lose.

Television Awards


Let me just say the TV side kept things VERY boring and they are the laziest voters I have ever seen!  They did not honor many new nominees.  I have to yawn here!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Drama Series 

Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
Homeland (Dexter)-They honored the tired old show they always honor from Showtime


4 out of 5

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series 

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire

Kyle Chandler-Friday Night Lights
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (Patrick J. Adams-Suits)-Never even heard of this show to be honest
Michael C. Hall, Dexter


4 out 5

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series 

Connie Britton-Friday Night Lights (Jessica Lange-American Horror Story)
Margo Martindale-Justified (Kathy Bates-Harry's Law)
Claire Danes, Homeland (Glen Close-Damages)
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Kelly McDonald-Boardwalk Empire (Kyra Sedgwick-The Closer)


1 out 5 (weak)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Comedy Series 

The Big Bang Theory

Glee
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation (The Office) They stuck with this, not one of the best ensembles anymore.
30 Rock


4 out of 5 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series 

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Steve Carell, The Office
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family (Jon Cryer-Two and a Half Men)-A prize for dealing with Sheen
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (Eric Stonestreet-Modern Family)

3 out of 5 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series 

Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly (Betty White-Hot in Cleveland)
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (Edie Falco-Nurse Jackie)
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family


3 out of 5


19 out of 30....I expected better of these voters in these categories, but it appears big names matter more.