Emmy Predictions (2016) Will it be an HBO Sweep Again?

Tonight Jimmy Kimmell will host the Emmy Awards, and I hope he doesn't tousle a racist Presidential candidates hair.  I do hope he takes Fallon to task for this; he can set himself apart, which he has continued to do in many ways in the late night game, finally making ABC a contender after years of Leno v. Letterman.

Outside of the host this is the second year the Emmy Awards have had their new popular vote, with another new tweak, voters are no longer ranking the nominees, they are picking their favorite and voting for one show/person.  Since this system is new this could provide some surprises, this could also become a boring ceremony quickly.

One of the most interesting elements to pay attention to in this new system is whether or not there will be surprise winners, and vote splitting.  Last week at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards there were some surprises, especially in the Guest Acting categories, but those always happen.  More on those in a second, but the biggest surprise and delight was when RuPaul won for Outstanding Reality Show Host.  This was her first nomination, and she won for season 8, this rarely happens.  I hope this surprise makes its way to the main show.

I am going to use the Comedy Guest Acting winners to prove that vote splitting may be a reality.  In Comedy Guest Actor you had Larry David and Tracy Morgan from Saturday Night Live. My guess is that both had their supporters, which ciphered votes paving the way for Peter Scolari to win for Girls.  Scolari was a replacement nominee, and his win was surprising, especially since I thought Martin Mull would benefit from the Veep name check, but he did not.  I think this proves that people are not just going to pick actors because they are in the show they are voting for in Best Comedy, which is why I am not picking Anna Chulmsky. Scolari also had a good tape, which actors still submit, but I am not sure people are watching tapes anymore.  I am not sure if we will ever truly know if the tapes matter anymore.

Many Emmy predictors will use Outstanding Guest Actress winners Amy Poehler and Tina Fey to disprove my vote splitting theory.  They were up against Melissa McCarthy and Amy Schumer for SNL. My argument, albeit thin, is simply, if you looked at ballot and saw those two power house comedic women nominated as one do you think there was any competition?

It is a thing argument, but I am going to go with it to make my predictions this year, and if I am wrong, at least I was one of the few to predict RuPaul's win!

Outstanding Drama Series

The Americans

Better Call Saul

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

Homeland

House of Cards 

Mr. Robot

Who Will Win: Game of Thrones, it won a record nine crafts Emmy Awards last week, and will become the most honored show at the Emmys

Watch Out for: The Americans, I think it could spoil in writing and acting, but not here yet.  With Thrones out of competition next year, if the show keeps up the quality, I think it will win next year.

My Vote: The Americans

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series 

Kyle Chandler-Bloodline

Rami Malek-Mr. Robot

Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul

Matthew Rhys-The Americans 

Liev Schrieber-Ray Donovan

Kevin Spacey-House of Cards

One of the hardest categories to predict.  None of these men have ever won.  Spacey is the biggest name, and he has won SAG twice, which should mean that he is the obvious choice, but I'm not sure it's that simple.  Malek is the hot new star, but that rarely works, it took John Hamm until the last season of Mad Men to win. Odenkirk is also a strong option, the show has some consistent love, but it's not on the same level as Breaking Bad style love.  Then there is Liev Schrieber "a movie star" in a show with growing support, but is it enough to bump him to a win?  Kyle Chandler pulled off an upset for Friday Night Lights, but that was based on tapes as opposed to popularity.  Then there is Matthew Rhys who finally pulled off a nomination with growing support The Americans, especially in the acting branch, could he pull off the biggest surprise?

Will Win: Kevin Spacey-House of Cards. Anyone of these 6 men can win (obviously) but usually there are people you know will not.  I am going the safe route on this one, Spacey makes the most sense.

Watch Out for: Everyone else, but strongest are (in order) Rami Malek, Liev Schrieber, and Bob Odenkirk.

My Vote: Rami Malek-Mr. Robot

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series 

Claire Danes-Homeland 

Viola Davis-How to Get Away with Murder

Taraji P. Henson-Empire

Tatiana Maslany-Orphan Black 

Keri Russell-The Americans

Robin Wright-House of Cards

Like last year many are predicting this to be a race between Robin Wright and Viola Davis.  I think Kerri Russell is a strong third, but not this year.  

Will Win: Viola Davis-How to Get Away with Murder.  She has two SAG wins, is well respected, even if the show does not have any other love.

Watch Out for: Robin Wright, who has never won, and was the true star of season four.

My Vote: Keri Russell-The Americans

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 

Jonathon Banks-Better Call Saul

Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones

Kit Harrington-Game of Thrones

Michael Kelly-House of Cards

Ben Mendelsohn-Bloodline

Jon Voight-Ray Donovan

No offense to the nominees, but this is the weakest category, based on tapes. Which makes this a harder category to predict.  This category also has many surprise wins like Željko Ivanek for Damages, Petere Dinklage (first win), and Bobby Cannavale for Boardwalk Empire, but these were all based on tapes.

Last year in the first year of the popular vote we saw Dinklage win, he rode the Thrones victory train.  Will this happen again?  Does Kit Harrington being in this category help one of the other men?

Will Win:  Jonathon Banks-Better Call Saul.  I think the vote split will be real, and I am going out a limb on this one.

Watch Out for: Peter Dinklage, he is popular, and could get a third win, tying Aaron Paul.  I do think he and Harrington are both popular enough to split enough number one votes to help Banks, who has been nominated her for both Breaking Bad and Saul.  Jon Voight is a big star who could bank on name recognition

My Vote: Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones (I guess)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series 

Emilia Clarke-Game of Thrones

Lena Headey-Game of Thrones 

Dame Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey

Maura Tierney-The Affair

Maisie Williams-Game of Thrones 

Constance Zimmer-House of Cards

There is a chance that no one will be back in this category next year, wouldn't that be crazy? No Thrones, Abbey is gone.  Tierney and Zimmer could lose buzz.  With that said I think with three nominees the vote splitting will lead to many award show junkies are dreading...

Will Win: Dame Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey.  I think the vote splitting will happen here, and people will want to honor Abbey one last time, but Smith will not be there, so people will be upset Thrones woman does not win.

Watch Out for: Anyone else! This category is impressive.  My second ranked person is Maura Tierney, she is very popular (even if The Affair is not) and could be the person people pick.

My Vote: Maura Tierney-The Affair

Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series 

Will Win: Mr. Robot-eps1.0_ hellofriend.mov (also my vote)

Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series  

Will Win: Game of Thrones-Battle of the Bastards (also my vote)

As we move into Comedy, you will see less commentary, mainly because the top three categories, have little assessment that is needed.

Outstanding Comedy Series 

Black-ish

Master of None 

Modern Family 

Silicon Valley

Transparent

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Veep

Will Win: Veep 

Watch Out for: Silicon Valley

My Vote: Master of None 

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 

Anthony Anderson-Black-ish

Aziz Ansari-Master of None

Will Forte-Last Man Standing

William H. Macy-Shameless

Thomas Middleditch-Silicon Valley

Jeffrey Tambor-Transparent

Will Win: Jeffrey Tambor-Transparent

Watch Out for: Anthony Anderson-Black-ish

My Vote: Aziz Ansari-Master of None

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Ellie Kemper-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep 

Laurie Metcalfe-Getting On

Tracee Ellis Ross-Black-ish

Amy Schumer-Inside Amy Schumer
Lily Tomlin-Grace and Frankie

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep

Watch Out for: Laurie Metcalf-Getting On (namely because she had three nominations this year)

My Vote: Ellie Kemper-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Louie Anderson-Baskets
Andre Braugher-Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Ty Burrell-Modern Family
Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Tony Hale-Veep
Keegan Michael Key-Key and Peele
Matt Walsh-Veep

This is a category to watch out for, I think anything is possible, even Ty Burrell (but I would rank him last).  I think the two people out front are Tony Hale and Titus Burgess, with Louie Anderson and Matt Walsh as spoilers.  This is the first time Hale has had competition from his own show in this category, and it could hurt his chances.  With seven nominees here, anything is possible.  I think Matt Walsh has a solid amount of love, and will ciphen votes from Hale.  I am going out on a limb with this category...

Will Win: Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.  I think many people love him and this character, and the residual love from last year will help him finally win.

Watch Out for: As listed above Hale, Anderson, and Walsh in that order, but this is category that I would not be surprised to see an upset.

My Vote: Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Anna Chlumsky-Veep

Gabby Hoffman-Transparent

Allison Janney-Mom

Judith Light-Transparent

Kate McKinnon-Saturday Night Live

Niecy Nash-Getting On

The easy pick here is Allison Janney for a threepeat, which is probably going to happen.  I could also see Chlumsky finally getting her due for Veep tonight.  I think this race is between them logically.  There is also a voice in my head that is saying scene stealers Niecy Nash and Judith Light could spoil.  Might as well go out on this limb.

Will Win: Niecy Nash-Getting On.  She got nominated last year, was in two shows, and is well liked by many.  I am willing to admit I may be wrong on this one, but I am going to have fun with this category, like supporting actor.

Watch Out for: Janney (she will most likely win), I can honestly see everyone but McKinnon and Hoffman winning.

My vote: Judith Light-Transparent

Outstanding Direction in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Transparent-Man on the Land 

Watch Out for and My Vote: Veep-Kissing Your Sister

Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Master of None-Parents 

Watch Out for and My Vote: Veep-Mother

The most suspenseful, and best categories of the evening are the TV Limited Series/Movie Acting categories.  This is the first year where you could probably fill each category with 10 worthy nominees.  These will/could be the most exciting to hear announced so hold on to your seats.  Listed below is my predictions for each category.  I think you will see the wins spread between OJ, Fargo and The Night Manager

Outstanding Limited Series: The People v OJ Simpson

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Courtney B. Vance-The People v OJ Simpson

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Sarah Paulsen-The People v OJ Simpson

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Hugh Laurie-The Night Manager (watch out for this one, could Sterling K. Brown for OJ too)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Jean Smart-Fargo

Outstanding Direction in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Fargo-Before the Law

Outstanding Writing in a Limited Series/TV Movie: The Night Manager

Outstanding Reality Competition Program: The Voice

Outstanding Variety Talk Series: Last Week Tonight

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series: Inside Amy Schumer