Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Oscar Predictions (Last Ones for 2014 Nominees)

Best Picture
1- Boyhood
2-The Imitation Game
3- Birdman
4-The Grand Budapest Hotel
5- The Theory of Everything
8-Gone Girl
If 10...
10-American Sniper

Based on Guilds, and BAFTA these seem to be the nine that have the most support, in this order in my opinion.  In fact if there were only five nominees, I am certain my top five would be the Best Picture nominees, aren't you glad there is a chance for 10?

American Sniper has been creeping around this race, but is missing support significant from SAG, and BAFTA.  You could say the same for Selma, which is why I have it lower on my list, but I do not think the Academy will ignore this film.

I am going with my gut on these, and I think these top nine will be the nominees.

Best Director
1-Richard Linklater-Boyhood
2-Alejandro González Iñárritu-Birdman
3-Wes Anderson-The Grand Budapest Hotel
4-Damien Chazelle-Whiplash
5-Ava DuVerney-Selma
6th Morten Tyldum-The Imitation Game 

Today's DGA nominees were lackluster, to stay the least.  The inclusion of Clint Eastwood and Morten Tyldum, who have not received a single major nomination is a joke.  I will say that it seems these two films peaked around DGA voting, so it is not surprising that they were included.

There are only three nominees that have been nominated across the board, they are Linklater, Inarritu, and Anderson.  Their films have tremendous support as well, they are in.

The Globes had Ava DuVernay for Selma and David Fincher for Gone Girl, BAFTA have James Marsh for The Theory of Everything, and Damien Chazelle for Whiplash.  The DGA as stated above had Eastwood, no not for Jersey Boys, but American Sniper, and Tyldum for The Imitation Game.

To say that these last two spots is going to be a crap shoot, is an under statement, there has been no consensus, but my gut says Chazelle, and DuVernay with Tyldum as a spoiler.

Best Actor
1-Michael Keaton-Birdman
2-Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything
3-Benedict Cumberatch-The Imitation Game
4-Jake Gyllenhaal-Nightcrawler
5-David Oyelowo-Selma
6th Place-Ralph Fiennes-The Grand Budapest Hotel

Once again, I think my top three are near locks.  I think Keaton is the front runner, while Redmayne is a very close second.  I think youth will be his downfall.  Cumberbatch is riding the The Imitation Game wave.  I think Gyllenhaal is safe bet, he has nominations at the Globes, BAFTA, and SAG, but so did Hanks, so nothing is for sure.

I think the last two men fighting out for that fifth spot are Oyelowo for Selma, and Fienes for Grand Budapest. Neither are up at SAG, Carell is the fifth spot there, but I think he will be bumped supporting.  Fiennes made it in at BAFTA, which can be a great predictor, but he is also a BRIT, and there is bias there.  I have gone back and forth on this one, but I think its Oyelowo. 

Best Actress
1-Julianne Moore-Still Alice
2-Reese Witherspoon-Wild
3-Rosamund Pike-Gone Girl
4-Felicity Jones-They Theory of Everything
5-Jennifer Anniston-Cake
6th Place-Amy Adams-Big Eyes 

I am still not sold on Anniston, and I think with Weinstein behind Big Eyes Amy Adams will land the fifth spot.  I am jumping out on a lot of ledges for these last spot acting nominees, I hope they pay off!  Adams scored a BAFTA nod too, not sure Anniston was eligible, but  I think people take her seriously.

Best Supporting Actor
1- J.K. Simmons-Whiplash
2-Edward Norton-Birdman
3-Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher
4-Ethan Hawke-Boyhood
5-Steve Carell-Foxcatcher 
6th Place-Robert DuVall-The Judge

DuVall has been the fifth place, place holder for the Globes and SAG; he is a big name well respected person.  Carell showing up in supporting at BAFTA is a tell tale sign in my opinion, and I think the Academy will want to reward his performance with a nomination.

Best Supporting Actress
1-Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
2- Meryl Streep-Into the Woods
3-Keira Knightly-The Imitation Game
4-Emma Stone-Birdman
5-Renee Russo-Nightcrawler 
6th Place-Jessica Chastain-A Most Violent Year

Hollywood has Chastain fever, but it would be the sole nomination for A Most Violent Year, and while that can happen, I am more hesitant day by day.  I think Russo showing up at BAFTA is also a nod to how much people like Nightcrawler.  I am using a lot of BAFTA to predict my nominations, which could be a a very good thing or very bad.

Best Adapted Screenplay
1-The Theory of Everything
2-Gone Girl
3-The Imitation Game
5-American Sniper

Best Original Screenplay
3-The Grand Budapest Hotel

5-Mr. Turner 

Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6 
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Lego Movie
The Tale of Princess Kaguya 

Best Documentary Feature
The Case Against 8 
Last Days in Vietnam
Life Itself 
The Overnighters 

Best Foreign Language Film 
Force Majeur (Sweden) 
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

Best Cinematography
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner 

Best Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner 

Best Editing 
Gone Girl/The Grand Budapest Hotel 

Best Make-Up/Hair Styling
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Theory of Everything 

Best Original Score 
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game 
The Theory of Everything 

Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game 
Into the Woods 
Mr. Turner 

Best Sound Editing
American Sniper 
Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper  
Into the Woods 

Best Visual Effects 
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: Battle of Five Armies 

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