Oscar Predictions Best Lead Actor (2016)

This year Best Actor seems to have three safe bets, and like within every other category, four or five other contenders jockeying for those fourth and fifth positions.  Many pundits/bloggers/critics are citing this as the weakest Best Actor competition in years.  This diminishes a lot of performances which are not being considered as major contenders like Christopher Abbott in James White, Jason Segel in The End of the Tour, and many more.

In the last two years BAFTA and SAG have never matched perfectly with the Lead Actor Oscar category.

2013

This was probably the most competitive Best Actor race, I have seen in the 10s, in regard to viable nominees, the winner eventually became an easy prediction.

When predicting these awards two years ago there were six very strong candidates, all of them showed up at the Globes, only McConaughey missed out at BAFTA, and DiCaprio missed out at SAG, because of the film's later release.

The locks for this race were Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers' Club, Bruce Dern for Nebraska and Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave. When predicting I had Tom Hanks ranked fourth, and DiCaprio ranked fifth (yes I have an archive on this).  Christian Bale in American Hustle ended up bumping Hanks, the stronger love for American Hustle (which went on to lose all of its Oscar nominations) in the acting branch helped secure his nomination over Hanks.

2014

There were 3 men who showed up consistently the Globes (which really do not matter), BAFTA, and SAG.  They were Eddie Redmayne (who won the Globe, BAFTA, SAG, and the Oscar) Michael Keaton (who won the Globe), and Benedict Cumberbatch.

The person everyone underestimated, namely because of category confusion was Steve Carell; he was nominated at the Globes, and SAG in lead, and at BAFTA in supporting.  His nomination made a ton of sense, the film also did well on nomination day.

Jake Gyllenhaal was nominated the Globes, BAFTA, and SAG; he seemed like a lock, but he was bumped by the late breaking strength of Bradley Cooper in American Sniper.  Cooper was predicted by some, but not many, especially since he received an Oscar nomination with no other precursor.

2015

Are there any late breaking phenomena like American Sniper? That would be Star Wars, but there is no potential acting nomination here.  Michael B. Jordan could be that person, but Creed has done what American Sniper did at the Guilds, and BAFTA, so I think he is out.  The person who could fit this mold is Steve Carell in The Big Short.  While Carell does have a Globe nomination, he has not shown up anywhere else.  The Big Short has a ton of love, and is showing up everywhere, including doing well at SAG, and fantastic at BAFTA. 

Is there anyone like Bale in American Hustle, who can push out a Tom Hanks? Namely is there an actor in a film the actors love and honor it with four acting nominations, or at least more than two?  I think if Michael Keaton had bumped up to lead this would be him, possibly, but there are no films which will recieve more than two Oscar nominations this year.

So who are the locks this year? Leonardo Dicaprio in The Revenant, Bryan Cranston in Trumbo, and Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl.  These three are locked into place.

Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs, seems like an obvious lock for that fourth spot; he is nominated the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA.  The one problem I have with this nomination is that it feels like the film does not have the love or attention you would expect, including missing out on SAG ensemble.  At the moment, and statistically he makes the most sense to get a nomination

Matt Damon would seem be fifth, he is the front runner for the Globes, although, I think they may pick Bale or Carell.  Damon and The Martian were snubbed by SAG, I was not shocked by the ensemble snub, but I was surprised Damon did not make the cut; Depp made it in over him. Damon's misfortune changed at BAFTA, he made their Best Actor list while The Martian was snubbed in Best Picture, this shows his performance has support.  I also think The Martian will be a top tier contender this year, and like Gravity (Bullock) he will be rewarded with a nomination.

On the movie star front Johnny Depp for Black Mass, and Will Smith for Concussion are on many lists to make the cut.  I think the one problem is their films have no other support, besides these two performances.  Black Mass may show up in Best Make-Up, but nowhere else.  Most of the time when a movie star shows up here their films get one or two more nominations including a screenplay nomination, like Denzel in Flight, which reieved a Best Original Screenplay nomination.  There are only a few performances that get a lone nomination like Demian Bichir for A Better Life (2011), but those are rare, which I think rules out Smith.  Depp has an outside shot in sixth or seventh.

I think in the end Damon and Carell are my final picks for spots four and five.  I think The Martian and The Big Short will have enough support to boost up their likely nominations.  I think Fassbender is a strong threat.

My Predictions

1-Leonardo DiCaprio-The Revenant

2-Bryan Cranston-Trumbo

3-Eddie Redmayne-The Danish Girl

4-Matt Damon-The Martian 

5-Michael Fassbender-Steve Jobs

Update: Carell is the 6th man here, the spoiler, but the Oscar voters do not pay attention to box office (never have) and Steve Jobs is just the kind of film they like. 

Oscar Predictions Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay 2016

Even the screenplay categories are tough to predict this year, and it's tough to use the Writer's Guild Awards as a bench mark because they disqualify so many potential contenders.  Let's use BAFTA as a benchmark, with statistics.

If you look at the Original Screenplay from BAFTA last year, every nominee recieved an Oscar nomination, although Whiplash competed in Adapted at the Oscars.  Foxcatcher replaced it in the Original Screenplay category, which makes sense since Dan Futterman has been nominated previously for Capote, with Benntt Miller.

The year before three films matched: American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, and Nebraska. Gravity, and Inside Llewyn Davis mad the cut at BAFTA, they were replaced at the Oscars by Her and Dallas Buyers Club, two films which did poorly at BAFTA,  Her went on to win the Oscar, and was a Best Picture nominee. Dallas Buyers Club made out like a bandit with nominations, the most shocking was an editing nomination.

In an unpredictable year, these statistic could mean nothing, but there are tea leaves in place, and those center on broader support.  BAFTA can be helpful, but a trend you will see is that there are some films that Americans just like better or vice versa.

How helpful is this year's WGA? Not very, too many films were deemed ineligible in Original Screenplay, including: The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, Ex Machina, and Son of Saul.  The nominees are: Bridge of Spies, Sicario, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton, and Trainwreck.

All five of those films have a shot at being nominated in Original Screenplay, two years ago the WGA matched all five nominees in Original Screenplay exactly, but last year the eventual winner (Birdman) was not eligible at the WGA. So where does this leave predictors?

Spotlight appears to be the only lock.  I think Bridge of Spies falls second and is the next safest bet, it was nominated at BAFTA, and WGA, it also has the Coens attached as screen writers.  While some will argue this did not help Inside Llewyn Davis, the difference is there is broader support for Spies. I think The Hateful Eight runs third, the film does not have broad support, outside of consistently being nominated in screenplay categories, voters love Tarantino here; he has two wins.

After this there are four films which could fill the next spots, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Sicario, and Straight Outta Compton.  I just do not see Trainwreck happening, sadly.

I am ranking Inside Out fourth, no animated film has been nominated her since Toy Story 3, but I think this film has enough love to make this happen.  Pete Doctor also three other Oscar nominations in screen writing for Toy Story, Wall-E, and Up.

I think fifth place is between Ex Machina, and Sicario.   Ex Machina feels like a film the writers branch the Academy will vote for, while Sicario feels like a film that will get more technical nominations.  My hunch is pushing me toward Ex Machina, and I am sticking with that hunch.

My Original Screenplay Predictions

1-Spotlight

2-Bridge of Spies

3-The Hateful Eight

4-Inside Out

5-Ex Machina

Adapted Screenplay is usually pretty easy, but there are always some curve balls, and snubs that just do not make sense, like Gone Girl being snubbed at the Oscars last year.  The placement of Whiplash was one of things that caused the Gone Girl snub.

Two years ago, four of the films matched at BAFTA, Behind the Candleabra (which aired on HBO in the States) showed up at BAFTA, and Before Midnight replaced it at the Oscars. 12 Years a Slave and Philomena were not eligible at PGA this year

Last year 3 of the BAFTA nominees in this category went on to be nominated at the Oscars (in this category): American Sniper, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything.  Only two of those films of those films were nominated at WGA, Theory was ineligible.

Gone Girl was nominated at BAFTA, and WGA, which had middling guild support, which could be a bad sign for Carol, because the films seem to have similar support, they are very different films though, which changes the game.

The biggest lock is in fact a film with a "big" title, The Big Short, which will most likely win this category at the Oscars.  Predicting the next 4 is tough, and beyond explanation, just more about gut.  I just changed my number five pick (swapping it with Brooklyn) because Trumbo has a lot of support, and it's a film about screen writers being black listed in Hollywood, it seems too obvious.  The next films in line would be: Brooklyn. Anamolisa , and The Martian.

My Adapted Screenplay Predictions

1-The Big Short

2-Carol

3-Steve Jobs

4-Room

5-Trumbo

Oscar Predictions Best Picture 2016

Last year critics/bloggers/"experts" all remarked how hard it was to predict winners, this is the Jaws year of predicting the Oscar nominees, only a bigger boat will not help.  You may need Professor Xavier from the X-Men. I wonder if he could create a cerebro model to find Oscar voters?

I love to be right about predicting the Oscars, but this year I am going to just go out on a ledge with a lot of categories, and see where I fall.  This year I will be breaking down my predictions, day by day, with different categories.  I will be starting with Best Picture, and my predictions in order are:

Best Picture

1-The Big Short

2-Spotlight

3-The Martian

4-Bridge of Spies 

5-The Revenant

6-Mad Max: Fury Road

7-Carol

8-Straight Outta Compton

9-Sicario

10-Room

The Big Short is the front runner at the moment, 2 SAG nominations, and strong support from many of the guilds (DGA to happen Tuesday), and did a lot better at BAFTA than I expected, including a Director nomination for Adam McKay, which bumped out Tom McCarthy.

Spotlight has under performed in many ways, no acting nominations at SAG, no ACE  nomination even with the categories being split between Drama and Comedy, and a poor showing at BAFTA.  The film still seems to have a lot of respect and admiration, and is a solid lock.

The Martian, Bridge of Spies, The Revenant, and Mad Max, all fall in the same category for me, broad support across the guilds and at BAFTA.  I think these four are near locks.

Carol jumped from 9 to 7 on my list, being one of the most nominated films at the BAFTAs helps, it also got key nominations in Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. I think this film has a lot of love, and enough passion to make the cut.

Straight Outta Compton and Sicario are the films which have surprised many, and shown up at guilds time and time again.  Both made the PGA list, which is huge.  I think there is broad enough support to include these two films in a top ten list

Room is a guess, the film just seems to have a lot of admiration, and seems to speak to this audience.  I think  Trumbo, Brooklyn, and The Force Awakens, are next in line (in that order).  

In the end we do not know how many films will be nominated for Best Picture, since the number can vary between 5 and 10 in a given year.  Last year there were only 8 nominees, there have typically been 9.  I think since this is a crazy year with a variety of passion for different films, this will be a year with nine nominees again.

Best Television Shows of 2015

So many lists will rank their "Best of..." but I will not be doing that with my television list.  I will be listing some best episodes, but other than that I will be staying away from that here.

2015 had some of the best television, with the landscape changing coming up with 10 was tough, so this may be one or two longer.

The Americans (F/X)-Season Three

This F/X drama has built up the perfect amount of tension each year.  In season three you got to see Elizabeth (Keri Russell) at her most vulnerable which was a nice evolution for her character.  The problem with this evolution for both Elizabeth and Phillip (Matthew Rhys) is the the more humanity that seeps into them the tougher it is for them to carry out their missions as Soviet spies.  With each season this becomes more and more complicated, and throughout season three you find these two more together than ever, but challenged by how this impacts their job.

For some reason this show has been criminally neglected by Emmy voters, minus Margo Martindale being nominated in Guest Actress. Season three was the best season in my opinion. Best Episode of the season: "Stingers"

Broad City (Comedy Central)-Season Two

Broad City is my favorite comedy on this list, no show makes me laugh the way this show does, and that is in large part to the two creative minds behind this genius show, Ilana Glazer and Abbi Jacobson.  Glazer and and Jacobson, star in, and write most of the episodes for the series, which tells one of the best stories about young white women in New York City (I could easily imagine Ilana saying that too-the white women part).

Whether the two are wondering down St. Marks for a birthday dinner, or Abbi is hanging out with a drunk Kelly Ripa, or Ilana is trying to buy fake handbags with her mom this shows of outlandish nature has one key point, friendship.  No show of television conveys the brilliance and beauty of what it means to be a friend like Broad City.  Best Episodes of Season: "Hashtag FOMO", and "St. Marks"

Fargo (F/X)-Season Two

Season two of Fargo takes viewers back in the past before the events of the first season, but to events referenced in the first season by Lou Solverson.  Fargo tackles the tone of 1979 with perfection, throwing in a campaign stop from Ronald Reagan, and the eventual birth of corporate crime into the mix, but it's build up surrounding these different events that makes this second season a huge success.

One of the intertesting differences between season one and season two is that Noah Hawley was given sole writing credit in every episode of season one, but season has a few credited writers in the mix, this did not change anything about the show, I was still on the edge of my seat.

The shows writing goes a little bit bigger, but keeps the sardonic, and witty tone, the one element added a little bit more is that gives off some strong emotional heft that makes you connect with these characters in many different ways.  This ensemble like season one is fantastic and hits every note out the park.  Best Episodes of Season: The Gift of the Magi, and The Castle 

Jane the Virgin (CW)-Season One & Two

I love this show, I do not think there is a show on television that wears it's heart on it's sleeve in the same way.  The show tackles motherhood, family and relationships with depth and levity.  Showrunner Jennie Urman (one of the few female show runners on television) uses the absurdity of the Telenovela structure while grounding  her characters with a humanity that most shows never achieve.  This is tight rope few could walk.

One of the main reasons for the success of this show is its cast from Gina Rodriguez (Jane) who nails what it means to be a young mom, to Jaime Camill (Rogelio) whose constant use of his celebrity status and Twitter hashtag usage makes me chuckle with glee.  

This show tackles the motherhood, within the Latino/Hispanic community in a way that no show has every done.  Sure Hilda in Ugly Betty was an amazing example of this, but Jane the Virgin has created a generational relate able show that is a great shining beacon in this realm.  Best Episodes of Season: "Chapter Twelve"and "Chapter Twenty-Two"

Jessica Jones (Netflix)-Season One

There have been a lot "super-hero" shows on television, and a few have actually stepped up to plate, and been amazing creating worlds.  Agent Carter was carried by the perfection of Hayley Atwell's performance.  Daredevil on Netflix finally got the character right, the dark tone, just worked.  There is only one show making this list for me, and that is Jessica Jones.

Jessica Jones stands out for a couple reasons, the first is the brilliant performance of Krysten Ritter, which rises above many lead performances I have seen this past year.  In the performance vein David Tenenant helped create the strongest villain in the Marvel cannon, and while there is not much competition there his performance as mind manipulating Kilgrave is terrifying.

Jones had one of the best subtext throughout the series, which connected the relationship Jessica and Kilgrave, and that centered around consent on a deeper metaphorical level.  The show goes there, forces you to think outside the normal super hero box.  Jessica is also not a traditional "super hero" so you get to delve into what does having powers entail? There is no simple answer.  Best Episodes of Season: "AKA Sin Bin" and "AKA Smile"

Making a Murderer (Netflix)

I am glad I waited to make my list, so I could add this show to the mix.  I am not going to say much about this series, because I do not want to spoil the experience, but this show keeps you on the edge of your seat and thinking with every episode. No matter what your personal beliefs are, this show calls into the question how power, privilege, wealth (or lack of it) influence the way things get handled in our countries Justice system.

Master of None (Netflix)-Season One  

Without ranking, this may be what I would rank as "best" on my list.  Master Of None was created by Aziz Ansari and Alan Yang, and follows Dev a struggling actor.  You follow Dev through the ups and downs of dating, dealing with cultural expectations from his family, and from casting directors as he tries to find success in every aspect of his life.

If None were an NBC sitcom it would be riddled with formulaic, stereotypical representations of what it means to be Indian, or what they think it means to be Indian.  Ansari changes the game with this sitcom, and delves deep into the way representation shapes interpretation on many levels. 

Each episode has a different tone/theme, the larger being the rom-com aspect with Noel Wells, which is handled better than any other relationship in television this season.  Yet the style of most of the episodes is individual, and has the filmic look and feel of Louie. The show's writing is quippy, sarcastic, and also tugs on the heart strings, which is a rare combination, but this show succeeds in many ways.  Best Episodes: "Parents "Indians of TV" and "Mornings" 

Mr. Robot (USA)-Season One 

This was another show that I did watch until later in the year, rather than when it aired. It started slow (for me) but I was intrigued by Rami Malek as Elliot; he has a magnetism in his performance which pulled me further and further into the rabbit hole of cyber hacking/terrorism.

As the show evolves and forms this world, there is an evolving energy, which is self-contained, something rare for a show like this, you feel an intimacy with the characters, even in a world that is meant to feel cold an isolating, especially through the perspective of Elliot.  This show makes the list because it blends some intriguing tropes, and has the creativity to delve deep into one of the most interesting topics of our time.

The Leftovers (HBO)-Season Two 

I almost gave up on this show, but towards the end of season one this show did a nice turn around.  There was an aura of improvement, namely from the performances from Justin Theroux, Carrie Coon, and Christopher Eccleston.  With the tragic ending of season two, you become ready for a new beginning, but the story takes many dark and twisted turns.

The season opens with a new family in Miracle, a town where no one was taken, and the first episode is brilliant because you build great connections with these folks including the incomparable Regina King. At the end of the episode Kevin and Nora are revealed to be their neighbors, and the roller coaster of emotions which venture more into the supernatural begin.

Season two is ruled by mind blowing performances from the four actors mentioned above, but add in Ann Dowd, Amy Brennemen, and Liv Tyler (yes Live Tyler) and you have one of the most complex emotional seasons of television. Best Episodes: "International Assassin" & "Lens"

Looking (HBO)-Season Two 

HBO only has two shows on this list, which is pretty great, but they have done an appalling job at nurturing programming, letting go of shows like Getting On, Enlightened, Hello, Ladies, and the show at the center of this blurb Looking.  I have many thoughts on HBO, but this is meant to celebrate the brilliant second season of Looking.

Show runner/creator Andrew Haigh who is responsible for the best about gay men, Weekend, dove deep in this subject matter of the everyday life of the modern gay man.  Many yawned at the first, season, but like The Leftovers this show evolved into one of the most touching and sometimes funny (thank Doris) shows on television.

Whether you are gay or straight, you can see yourself in one of these characters, the neurotic Patrick, or loving and hopeful Richie.  Haigh has created some of the authentic, and vulnerable characters to grace television; he knows how to delve into the complexities of sex better than anyone.  Best Episodes: "Looking for Plot" and "Looking for Home"

Transparent (Amazon)-Season Two

Season two delves deeper into Maura and her story, what it means to be a woman, what it means to be part of a larger family, and finding yourself in the legacy of your family.  Jill Solloway has taken this show to the next level in many ways; she explores these characters in microscopic ways that pushes boundaries in allowing them to understand themselves,

My favorite thing about Transparent is that each of their characters "follows their truth" and through the writing and the performances you eventually see this journey is not always east, in fact it brings pain, anguish, often self-doubt.  My favorite episode explore what it means to be a woman, and how folks define what the definition means, and how it means different things to different people.  In this episode Maura is seeking community, but what seems to be a safe space, may not be. One of the bravest episodes exploring the complexity of being a feminist.

There are times when you hate these characters, but the subtext about each of these people is they are in transition, trying to find their true identity, and aren't we all trying to find that?  This constant transition does not ease the pain when a relationship ends, or there is awkward tension between two people, but it clings to key point of show's focus. life is an evolution, and it's all about finding yourself. Best Episodes "Kina Hora" and "Man of the Land"

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)-Season One 

Just plain fun, I am not sure there is another show on this list, or on television, which makes me smile the way Kimmy Schmidt felt.  I love the world Tina Fey has created here, it's a rag tag ensemble led by the wonderful Ellie Kemper.  Tituss Burgess is the comedic MVP of 2015; he sold every moment of his character, I know "Pinot Noir" is the favorite, but I love when he sings Boyz II Men at the Korean man's funeral.

Tina Fey and her writing team do a fantastic job turning real life situations, blending the absurd, and making them funny. The show is one I have already watched three times in less than a year, namely because I love this world, and feel at home inside.  Best Episodes: "Kimmy goes Outside" "Kimmy goes on a Date"

Returning to Blogging!

I have not written in a while, separating my emotions from the politics of anything film and television related has been a challenge.  The biggest frustration I have had is the band wagon hate, see the recent reaction for Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I am by no means a fan boy, I grew up on the films, and they meant a great deal to me.  I get people not liking a film, it's how I felt about The Hateful Eight this year. I think my perspective is that I am open to dialogue about why I liked The Force Awakens, or  did not The Hateful Eight, while some just are openly rude in their perspective.

My greatest inspiration for blogging is Sasha Stone; she has passion, and when she writes about movies their is such professionalism whether she likes them or not. I also appreciate that she lends her voice to talking about representation (or often the lack of representation) of diversity in film in front of of the camera, and behind the scenes.  Sasha has so much passion for her work, and I long to replicate this with my own work.

I have often wondered if my voice mattered.  Am I just another regular person with a blog? The answer to both of those questions is Yes, and the result is writing a little bit more and more each week, about different experiences I have, for me, as an outlet.  If others happen to read them, and agree and disagree, I am reaching an audience, and that is fine by me.

I am going to write about the best television and film of 2015 (for me), but I am also going to continue to lend my voice to talking about representation in film, television, and other media like comic books.  I want to make my voice singular, and meaningful.  Last night Carol ignited my passion, and it's time to return to writing more!

67th Annual Emmy Ceremony Predictions (2015)

After the Creative Arts Emmy winners in the Guest Acting winners this past Saturday, I am starting to feel like predicting these winners may be a moot point.  The Guest Acting winners on the Comedy side make enough sense, while the drama winners caused me to scratch my head, a lot!  The new popular ballot could make predicting these winners tricky.

Outstanding Drama Series
“Better Call Saul”
“Downton Abbey”
“Game of Thrones”
“Homeland”
“House of Cards”
“Mad Men”
“Orange is the New Black”

Conventional wisdom would say that this will go to Mad Men.  The final season had strong reviews, and the show ended on a high note.  The one problem is the show has not won a single Emmy in the last three ceremonies.  I think it will win a couple, just not this one.

Game of Thrones is my prediction. The show won 8 at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards this past Saturday, and will most likely break the record for most Emmy Awards won by a drama series.  The West Wing has the record with 9 wins.  With the shift to a popular vote the race is between these two shows.  Thrones win in Casting (Drama) is the biggest clue from Saturday.

Will Win: Game of Thrones 
Spoiler: Mad Men

Outstanding Comedy Series
"Louie"
"Modern Family"
"Parks and Recreation"
"Silicon Valley"
"Transparent"
"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
"Veep"

Modern Family will not break the record, it will have to settle for five Comedy Emmy wins.  This year there are two shows poised to de-throne this juggernaut, Veep and Transparent.  I was hoping Veep would take the prize last year, the show had its funniest season last year.  Ironically I think it will win for the weakest season.  Veep won Outstanding Casting (Comedy) on Saturday, another telling sign, especially since its rare to win that prize late in the game.

Transparent did well at the Creative Arts ceremony, winning 3 awards, including Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy. This win shows that Transparent has support, and while I think Transparent could spoil here, I think Transparent will win for Lead Actor and Comedy Directing.

Will Win: Veep 
Spoiler: Transparent

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series 
Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”
Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

I think there are three women who have strong chances to win this prize, Davis, Henson, and Wright. Davis is out front; she won the SAG  prize this past year, she is two time Oscar nominee, and her performance is stellar.  Henson's show came out late, and she had a lot of support from critics, but the Emmy Awards did not get on the Empire train.  Henson's character is larger than life, and unforgettable.  Wright should have won the trophy last year, but she submitted poorly.  This year Wright supported, correctly, and her show has way more support than the other two combined.

If Davis or Henson do win, they will make history.  No black woman has ever won this prize.  I think this historical moment will be hard to ignore, and they will pick one of these women, both deserve the prize.

Will Win: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
Very Close 2nd: Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
Spoiler: Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series 
Kyle Chandler, “Bloodline”
Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

Will John Hamm follow in the foot steps of Steve Carell and Martin Sheen?  Both men never won for their iconic roles.  The fact that Hamm has not won for playing Don Draper is a crime, and I am predicting him, but watch out for two smaller suspects in this category.

I think most would say the closest competition is Kevin Spacey, but I think its Bob Odenkirk and Kyle Chandler are the bigger spoilers.  Better Call Saul appears to have lots of residual Breaking Bad love, and Odenkirk could bank roll this popularity.  Chandler is a former Emmy winner, and his tape is great.  I think both of these men could take the trophy, but my gut is Hamm.

Will Win: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Spoiler: Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 
Anthony Anderson, "Black-ish"Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"
Louis C.K., "Louie"
Will Forte, "The Last Man on Earth"
Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes"
William H. Macy, "Shameless"
Jeffrey Tambor, "Transparent"

If you asked me before Saturday, I would have Tambor was a strong bet, but because the role isn't actually funny, I thought he had more competition.  I think it seems like Transparent has the most support, especially with Whitford's win.  I think the only spoiler could be past Emmy winner William H. Macy, but it's Tambor's time.

Will Win: Jeffrey Tambor, "Transparent"
Spoiler: William H. Macy, "Shameless"

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy 
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
Lisa Kudrow, "The Comeback"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
Amy Schumer, "Inside Amy Schumer"
Lily Tomlin, "Grace and Frankie"

My mind wants to think this is more competitive than it is, but my gut tells me Julia Louis-Dreyfus will take this prize again, easily.

I do think think there are other option that should be explored.  I think the strongest spoiler is Amy Schumer, but I also think they may honor her in Outstanding Variety Sketch, and think that win is enough.  Schumer like Melissa McCarthy is all over the place from movies to specials, and that helped bump McCarthy to a win.

I think the third main contender is Amy Poehler; she has never won for this role, and Parks and Recreation was the surprise 7th nominee in Outstanding Comedy Series, which shows more popularity than expected.  I am going to go on the ledge for this one....

Will Win: Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
Very Close 2nd: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"
Spoiler: Amy Schumer, "Inside Amy Schumer"

Supporting Actress Drama: Uzo Aduba-Orange is the New Black
Supporting Actor Drama: Jonathan Banks-Better Call Saul
Supporting Actor Comedy: Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt 
Supporting Actress Comedy: Anna Chlumsky-Veep
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series: Mother's Mercy-Game of Thrones
Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series: Person to Person-Mad Men
Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series: Best New Girl-Transparent
Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series: Election Night-Veep
Outstanding Limited Series: Olive Kitteridge
Outstanding Lead Actress Limited/Movie: Frances McDormand-Olive Kitteridge
Outstanding Lead Actor Limited/Movie: David Oyelowo-Nightengale
Outstanding Supporting Actress Limited/Movie-Sarah Paulson-Freak Show
Outstanding Supporting Actor Limited/Movie-Damien Lewis-Wolf Hall
Outstanding Directing Limited/Movie-Freak Show
Outstanding Writing Limited/Movie-Olive Kitteridge
Variety Talk Series-Late Show with David Letterman
Variety Sketch Series: Inside Amy Schumer 

The Problem with the Studio System and Comic Book Films: Was Josh Trank set-up to Fail ?

I am not on Team Trank, or Team FOX, I am on Team let's take a breather, sit back, and realize the
growing problem with comic book films. I think this problem is two fold.  The first problem is studios are manipulating stories they do not understand/don't care to understand.  The second problem is there is a loss of creativity when studios manipulate a director/writers vision.  The bottom line is that studios want a product. Kevin Feige and Marvel want to create films that fit together like a giant puzzle, and Warner Brothers, and FOX want to follow in this process.

Let's examine the box office of three comic book films from Marvel, the Avengers, Iron Man 3, and Guardians of the Galaxy.  Avengers is the highest grossing Marvel film at 623 million domestic. Avengers involved a limited cast, and the strings of what/who were involved in the Universe were simpler. You still had to see many of the other films to know and understand the back story for these characters, but Avengers, gave you some back story to flesh out the film.  The first Avengers is the best film in the cannon, in my opinion.

Iron Man 3 was next, and while the film dealt with Tony's post traumatic stress from the Avengers, it still felt like its own film.  I was not a fan of this film because I did not like the interpretation of Mandarin, but the film still focused on Tony, and should be applauded for keeping the subject matter contained.  Iron Man 3 mad 409 million domestic, and ranks third at the box office for Marvel.

Guardians of the Galaxy booted up a brand new team for Marvel, we learned about all the characters, and sure there was an Infinity Stone/Thanos tie-in, but the film did an excellent job of creating a brand new world to explore. Guardians ranks fourth, and made 333 million domestic.  I think this box office total is the most impressive, and something Marvel, and other studios should acknowledge.  Guardians is about a team most had never heard about, but because it was fun,  people showed up.  The fun element is something I will re-visit, but many comic book movies have missed this, which has and will prevent them from being successful.

Each of these films connects in a small way, they tell their own story.  The thread that connects these films is small, and audiences do not have to burdened by this connection. As studios maximize their connected universe the weight on movie goers may unravel these tent poles.  Let's take Ant-Man, many friends asked me after the movie who the characters were in the beginning of the film, their was no explanation  They also asked more about Falcon, because they had not seen Winter Soldier, and about the new Avengers base because they did not make Age of Ultron.  These connections are fun for me, but are the studios putting the cart before the horse?

DC/Warner Brothers are putting the cart before the horse in a big way.  Man of Steel was the first film in their current tent pole reboot.  Man of Steel was had mixed reviews from critics, and fans.  I am not a fan of Superman, but the tone of the movie, from director Zack Snyder was off base.  They tried to to go too serious, and missed the whimsy needed with this character.  Man of Steel did well enough at the box office, 291 million domestic, and so they studio went full steam ahead with a sequel.  The problem is the sequel doesn't seem to be a sequel, but a launching point for several DC super heroes, including Batman, Wonder Woman, and possibly more, as they move toward making a Justice League film.

The problem with this plan is while Man of Steel made 116 million its opening weekend (domestic) the film barely crossed 600 million worldwide.  With more characters, including Batman they are trying to ensure a larger audience for Batman v. Superman, but what if its another failure?  There are already other movies connected to this, and sure they make money, but look what happened when people lost faith in the Spider-Man films, the box office tapered so much, they decided to re-boot for third time.  I think DC/Warner Brothers need to be strategic rather than trying to play catch up, especially when their visionary director does not capture the right tone of the characters.

What about the director?  I wonder if Josh Trank felt so powerless as the reviews started to come online?  Before Fantastic Four Trank, had one major film under his belt, Chronicle.  Not a hefty resume, but FOX entrusted this man to start a major tent pole, Marvel has been doing the same thing.  Jame Gunn directed Guardians of the Galaxy, and priort to that he had credits directing two independent films, Slither, and Super. Peyton Reed who directed Ant-Man, had mostly schlocky romantic comedies in his repertoire, Bring it On, The Break-Up, Down with Love, and Yes, Man.  FOX's Deadpool is being directed by Tim Miller, who has no major credits, I could go on an on.  This is not to say that experience is everything because Zack Snyder ruined Superman, but I think when studios take the director out of the equation, or try to manipulate their work you get disjointed work.

Joss Whedon's experience with Marvel on Avengers: Age of Ultron is a a great example of pushing a great director to side, and trying to manipulate the material.  Whedon talked about fighting fighting for Scarlett Witch induced dreams, and the scenes in the farmhouse in an Empire Film podcast “The dreams were not an executive favorite — the dreams, the farmhouse, these were things I fought to keep,” Whedon fought against the mildly confusing scenes with Thor in the cave, and how Marvel manipulated him to keep this material in the film, even after test audiences hated these scenes. “With the cave, it really turned into: they pointed a gun at the farm’s head and said, ‘Give us the cave, or we’ll take out the farm,’ — in a civilized way. I respect these guys, they’re artists, but that’s when it got really, really unpleasant.” 

Whedon talked about being beaten down, and feeling "defeated" by the system.  While I liked Age of Ultron, you can feel the gaps, based on his interview, the film is has its strong moments, but you can tell Whedon had a direction, but studio interference hindered this film's quality.

Whedon and Trank are not the first to cite studio intervention being problematic in these films.  Edgar Wright worked on Ant-Man for a long time, and while he got screenplay and story credits, he left the project under still unknown differences with Marvel. Michelle MacLaren was set to be the first female to direct a super hero film; she was going to direct Wonder Woman, but she left the project over "creative differences." Ava DuVernay was rumored to directed Black Panther but did not take the project stating "I'm not signing on to direct Black Panther. I think I’ll just say we had different ideas about what the story would be. Marvel has a certain way of doing things and I think they’re fantastic and a lot of people love what they do. I loved that they reached out to me.  In the end, it comes down to story and perspective. And we just didn't see eye to eye. Better for me to realize that now than cite creative differences later."  Yet I liked Ant-Man, I am excited for a Wonder Woman film, and for Black Panther, but can these companies do right by these characters moving forward?

I have not seen the Fantastic Four yet, and probably won't.  I know they changed one the characters back stories, and its maddening.  Sue Storm doesn't go with the boys on their mission, it's "bro-time" according to one review.  Not only do I hate this concept, but its a slap in the face to the legacy of these characters. Talking about gender, or any form of diversity in comic book films is another ball of wax, and one another way the studios, and the powers that be are messing with the creative processes.

From no Black Widow movie announced to Trank's alleged changed creative direction for the Fantastic Four, the down and dirty of the situation is that studios want to make money, but they do not realize they are hurting their brand.  Trank's tweet is childish, and there was probably a better way to handle his film being ripped to shreds by critics.  On the other hand what do you expect when this is a director's first "major" film, and the studio potentially chops your film to shreds? Trank can bounce back, but having a well known creative flop on a resume, and nasty tweet to a studio is not a good start. If I were a director on the rise, I would not sign on to a work on one of these films.  Trank was set up to fail, any director who signs on to major studio project will soon learn its not about them, and the studio will have no problem ditching people, and moving forward without a second thought.