Oscar Predictions October 2013

The film festivals of the Summer have ended (TIFF, Venice, Cannes), and the Oscar friendly fall has begun.  Now that I have seen quite a few contenders for this years Oscars, and the word is out on many others time to update my own August predictions.  The big question, how much is there to change ?

Gravity is a hit with critics, and at the box office, same for Captain Phillips.  Lee Daniel's The Butler did well at the box office, and while middling with critics has the elements of a good film.  Fruitvale Station reminds me of Beasts of the Southern, new director does good, lots of emotional impact, and I can't see them ignoring the film.

What about the new surprises in both picture, and acting?  The Secret Life of Walter Mitty could be the heartfelt film which sneaks into the race, but the second trailer looks off putting.  Her was recently seen, but Spike Jonez films never get the respect they deserve, but are also rarely ignored.  Dallas Buyers Club has been seen by many, and the performances of Matthew McConaughey, and Jared Leto are perfect Oscar bait roles.  Can newcomer Barkhad Abdi score a nomination for Captain Phillips?  Will Tom Hanks be a double nominee?  Is Saving Mr. Banks or American Hustle going to be good?

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle

August: Osage County
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lee Daniel's The Butler
Nebraska

At the moment I would only swap Captain Phillips for Blue Jasmine, I think Jasmine will have to settle for Actress and Screenplay.  I am keeping in American Hustle, but think this could be just popcorn fun.  Everyone has Wolf of Wall Street in the mix, but i am convinced its moving to 2014.  Outside shots at the moment are Saving Mr. Banks and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.

Best Director
Lee Daniels-Lee Daniel's The Butler
Paul Greengrass-Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell- American Hustle

Greengrass, and McQueen are in!  They were not in my August predictions but they will be nominated.  I think the fifth spot is going to go for either the fresh new Ryan Coogler, or Lee Daniels for The Butler, at the moment I am going to go for Daniels; he is a past Oscar nominee, and the film has the edge of Fruitvale.

Best Actor 
Bruce Dern- Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips
Robert Redford- All Is Lost
Forrest Whitaker-Lee Daniel's The Butler 

The toughest category to predict, and I change my predictions almost daily.  Can McConaughey be taken seriously enough?  I have this feeling, and its an eerie one that he still may not be, because of his hunk theory (Tom O'Neil) or "slap the stud." At the moment I am going to stick with Whitaker, the past Oscar winner.  

Best Actress 
Cate Blanchett- Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Judi Dench- Philomena
Meryl Streep- August: Osage County
Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks

Easier than Best Actor because of the lack of lead performances in contention, but Amy Adams could sneak into this category.  I think Thompson is going to come back and join the Oscars (watch out for this film).

Best Supporting Actor 
Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave
John Goodman-Inside Llewyn Davis
Tom Hanks- Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club

I think Leto is the nominee for Buyers Club, Hanks could be swapped out with Harrison Ford in 42.  If Fassbender does not campaign can he get in?  This is my changed up list.


Best Supporting Actress 
Amy Adams-American Hustle 
Margo Martindale-August: Osage County
Lupita Nyongo-12 Years a Slave
Octavia Spencer-Fruitvale Station
Oprah Winfrey-Lee Daniel's The Butler

I think Adams will go down to supporting, character actress Margo Martindale will sneak in over Roberts.  The rest seems safe bets minus Octavia Spencer, but she is great.

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Fruitvale Station
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Captain PhillipsThe Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Fall Grades for Returning Television Shows

After tackling the new shows, I had to grade the returning series as well, and yes I watch this much television.  At the moment I would say that network television is averaging a solid B, with a few shows rising above the crap.  My one complaint is that "great" television comedies have seemed to disappear, there are few which live up to standard.  I want to see comedy rise from the ashes, but until then here is a look at how this seasons returning shows are doing this year.

Once Upon a Time (ABC) B

Finding and defining this version of Neverland is more interesting than anything they did in the second season, and we are only three episodes into the third season.  While the CGI is a bit jarring, that storm in the first episode almost looked as fake as the background in the Pilot of The Ringer, but I digress.  The creators have found the perfect Pan, and I like the depth in the direction of the material, the fact that both Henry and Emma were orphans and the connection with the lost boys, and well girl.  Good start!

Revenge (ABC)-B-

Another show which had a bit of a sophomore slump, is doing much better.  Revenge had a good last episode, but the season reminded me of Alias, when it got too bogged down in this outside organization playing puppet master.  This season is back to the red sharpied basics.  I would urge this show to end this season, and end on a high note.  I think if they continue on the path they would be grasping at straws.  Good start and Nolan, and Patrick, yes please!

The Good Wife (CBS)-A

The best network television series on the air, this season is not holding anything back, and unlike last year the show is not starting from a downward place, they are firing on all cyllinders.  The pilot which was directed by Robert King is one of the shows best episodes connecting the case with the behind the scenes drama.  Catch up and watch this show.

How I Met Your Mother (CBS)-C+

Better than last year, but spending the whole season on wedding weekend, and Marshall's story of a road trip with Sherri Shepherd is terrible.  I loved the mother, thought she was great, she and Lily had wonderful chemistry.  I also like all the connections from past guest stars.

New Girl (FOX)-B-

The second season did not hit a slump, but rather kept the creative juices going.  This season has let me down Schmidt is becoming a one note selfish characters, in the past his quirks were endearing, but he's not growing.  There has to be something better for Winston than becoming a cat person.  I like Jess and Nick together that has saved the show for me, where I can rank it higher.

The Mindy Project (FOX)-D

Probably one of the worst sitcoms on the air, I love Mindy Kailing, but this show is beneath her, and it never had any direction.  The show has meandered through trying to use famous people as potential beaus, or rivals to save things, but when the material is bad, its bad.

Modern Family (ABC)-B-

Tough call, the first episode back had me lulled into a false sense of security that this show was back with the Mitch and Cam engagement story line.  At the moment my favorite character is Lily; she is the one who consistently delivers.  I think the show is funny, but has lost a lot of its sheen.  With that said how can you hate this show? 

American Horror Story: Coven (F/X)-B+

My favorite premiere of all three of the different series, the episode was tight, and put things in motion to becoming a blend of darkness, and humor, something Ryan Murphy excels within.  This show has seemed to be the most comfortable material for Murphy, and it shows, the cast the writing great start to Coven.

Parks and Recreation (NBC)-A-

What can I say about the show consistently snubbed by the Emmy Awards, it still has it!  While the second episode was a bit of filler to push story the third episode entitled "Dopplegangers" is the reason this is one of, if not the best comedy airing on television.

Grey's Anatomy (ABC)-C+

Still faltering, with the interns no one cares about.  The only reason to watch this is leaving at the end of this year, and that is Sandra Oh; she is far too talented for this material.  I am curious to see if this show can recover without her.

Scandal (ABC)-B+

Shonda is on her A, well B+ game with this show, the heightened drama is jam packed, and even with the far fetched plots and melodrama, there is something fun, and juicy to turn into week after week.  Kerry Washington and team help add to the fun of course.

Fall Grades for New Television Shows

Every year when the Fall shows arrive there is both anticipation, and a hesitancy.  Anticipation that you will get to experience something new and cool.  Hesitancy to get attached to something that ABC may just cancel, sorry I am not over the cancellation Happy Endings, you put together a crappy line up.  My venting is over, after a few weeks for most shows, and one for some, its time to put together a list of grade for people who are afraid to get attached too quickly.

The Masters of Sex (SHOW)-A

The best new fall series, Showtime has a great show on their hands with great acting writing, and a solid premise.

Mom (CBS)-C+

There is promise here, Farris and Janney are great, but the premise writing could use a little work.  Great one liners, but tries too hard sometimes.  Give it time, and it will find its groove.

Sleepy Hollow (FOX)-B+

Probably my second favorite fall show, and this past week's episode with ties to Dante's Inferno helped set a great direction for this show.  Keep up the great work.

Hostages (CBS)-C+

The premise is thin for me, and while I think its good drama with solid acting, I can't imagine this show stretching into a long running series.

The Blacklist (NBC)-B

James Spader is just plain fun, and while this is merely procedural, procedurals with great characters can have a long lasting impact.

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC)-B-

Yes I have let go of my fan boy mentality with this show, they got a full season pick up, was their any doubt?  I think the show is standing on solid ground, but needs to move quick, or fan boys will disappear into the gravity machine from last weeks episode.

Brooklyn Nine-Nine (FOX)-B

Great potential, with a solid ensemble, maybe too many characters?  If you are not a fan of Andy Samburg you will hate this show; he can be very grating.  Andre Braugher is fantastic.

Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (ABC)-B

ABC should make this last one or two seasons, then close the loop between this and the mothership (Once Upon a Time), I have a feeling because of production costs this will be the case.  The show is intriguing, and intrigued to see where this goes.

The Crazy Ones (CBS)-A-

This is my favorite new comedy of the season, I think the ensemble is great, and while Williams vamps well, so does the rest of the cast, and they have great chemistry.

The Michael J. Fox Show (NBC)-C

This show has the talent, but has a long way to go, I think this will be the first show removed from my TiVo, the way The Mindy Project was removed last year, never fulfilling the expectations of the build up.

American Music Awards (AMA) Nominees Announced-Justin Timberlake, and Taylor Swift, Lead the Pack!

Maybe Vanity Fair is right, Timberlake should stick to music.  The American Music Awards (AMAs) announced their nominees today.  These awards are based more on popularity, and are more like the VMAs, but watch out for some of these names to do well at the Grammy Awards this year.

ARTIST OF THE YEAR

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
Bruno Mars
Rihanna
Taylor Swift
Justin Timberlake

NEW ARTIST OF THE YEAR PRESENTED BY KOHL’S

Florida Georgia Line
Ariana Grande
Imagine Dragons
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
Phillip Phillps

SINGLE OF THE YEAR

Florida Georgia Line Featuring Nelly/Cruise
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis Featuring Wanz/Thrift Shop
Robin Thicke Featuring Pharrell & T.I./Blurred Lines

FAVORITE MALE ARTIST – POP/ROCK

Bruno Mars
Robin Thicke
Justin Timberlake

FAVORITE FEMALE ARTIST – POP/ROCK

P!nk
Rihanna
Taylor Swift

FAVORITE BAND, DUO OR GROUP – POP/ROCK

Imagine Dragons
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
One Direction

FAVORITE ALBUM – POP/ROCK

One Direction/Take Me Home
Taylor Swift/Red
Justin Timberlake/The 20/20 Experience

FAVORITE MALE ARTIST – COUNTRY

Luke Bryan
Hunter Hayes
Blake Shelton

FAVORITE FEMALE ARTIST – COUNTRY

Miranda Lambert
Taylor Swift

Carrie Underwood

FAVORITE BAND, DUO or GROUP - COUNTRY

The Band Perry
Florida Georgia Line
Lady Antebellum

FAVORITE ALBUM - COUNTRY

Luke Bryan/Crash My Party
Florida Georgia Line/Here’s To The Good Times
Taylor Swift/Red

FAVORITE ARTIST – RAP/HIP-HOP

Jay Z
Lil Wayne
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

FAVORITE ALBUM – RAP/HIP-HOP

Jay Z/Magna Carta…Holy Grail
Kendrick Lamar/good kid, m.A.A.d city
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis/The Heist

FAVORITE MALE ARTIST – SOUL/R&B

Miguel
Robin Thicke
Justin Timberlake

FAVORITE FEMALE ARTIST – SOUL/R&B

Ciara
Alicia Keys
Rihanna

FAVORITE ALBUM – SOUL/R&B

Rihanna/Unapologetic

Robin Thicke/Blurred Lines
Justin Timberlake/The 20/20 Experience

FAVORITE ARTIST - ALTERNATIVE ROCK

Imagine Dragons
The Lumineers
Mumford & Sons

FAVORITE ARTIST - ADULT CONTEMPORARY

Maroon 5
Bruno Mars
P!nk

FAVORITE ARTIST - LATIN

Marc Anthony
Prince Royce
Romeo Santos

FAVORITE ARTIST - CONTEMPORARY INSPIRATIONAL

tobyMac
Chris Tomlin
Matthew West

FAVORITE ARTIST - ELECTRONIC DANCE MUSIC (EDM)

Avicii
Daft Punk
Calvin Harris
Zedd

TOP SOUNDTRACK

The Great Gatsby: Music From Baz Luhrmann’s Film
Les Miserables
Pitch Perfect

A Tribute to Great Film: The Player (1992)

I honestly can't believe that Robert Altman has been dead for 7 years, this man was a genius, and his imprint is missed on films.  Altman's cannon of films is beyond impressive with MASH (1970),  McCabe and Mrs. Miller (1971), Nashville (1975), Short Cuts (1993), Cookie's Fortune (1999), Gosford Park (2001), and of course the subject of this post The Player (1992).  Altman's directorial style preferred large style casts which have an over lapping dialogue, which sets up an incredibly layered film experience.  Film critic Pauline Kael stated Altman "can make fireworks out of next to nothing."

My first Altman experience was with Cookie's Fortune (1999), while at that point in my life I did not understand Altman's style, after a few years later after loving Gosford Park, I went back to this film and fell in love with and explored this man's films even further.  Up until this past weekend my favorite Altman was Nashville, but now I have to give it up to The Player, but both are amazing films.

The Player is one of the films people need to talk about more. The film centers around Hollywood executive Griffin Mill played Tim Robbins who is blackmailed by a writer who he spurned.  The film takes a dark twist and explores the darkest aspects of the emerging studio model, and the modern day star system.

Without giving much of the plot away this film is a scathing indictment of the Hollywood manufacturing system, which still exists today, but has come to become more a sequel system as opposed to the star system.  The running joke throughout The Player is the use of Julia Roberts, who shows up in the end of the film, great to see her in on the joke.  A year prior to The Player, Roberts was launched into stardom with Pretty Woman; she was the "it girl" and the highest paid movie star of the time.  Numerous celebrities appear throughout the film from John Cusack to Andie McDowell, Bruce Willis, Susan Sarandon, and many more.  Bringing in the these celebrities only adds to the experience of this film.

The Player is brilliant because of the way it shows the dark, and dangerous path with which executives have manipulated the system to push out the creative types.  Peter Gallagher's character Larry Levy argues to cut out the writer because they waster time.  The movie itself makes a "killing" of a writer seemingly showing the power of the executive and the role with which writer is kept down.

You have to applaud Altman for his bravery in putting together this film with and producer David Brown (Jaws, The Sting).  While Altman himself is quoted as saying this was "a mild satire meant to offend no one" there was no direct offensive nature to any one person, but merely the modern day Hollywood executive.

The film had 3 Oscar nominations, including Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Editing, but no Best Picture, and Tim Robbins was criminally snubbed.  The film won the Golden Globe for Best Picture Musical/Comedy, and Robbins won Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy.  Altman also won Best Director at Cannes.  While this film has seemed to be lost in the pantheon of classics, this is a classic film that should be explored, and will forever be known as re-launching Altman's career.

Captain Phillips proves to be another incredibly succesful film, which builds to incredibly tense, and emotional finale.

Captain Phillips (5 out of 5 Stars)

Directed by: Paul Greengrass (United 93, The Bourne Supremacy, The Bourne Ultimatum)

Written by:Billy Ray (The Hunger Games, State of Play)

Starring: Tom Hanks, Barkhad Abdi, and Catherine Keener

Is it possible that I have seen three of the best films 2013, and we are only at October 3rd?  After Before Midnight, and Gravity, Captain Phillips proves to be another incredibly succesful film, which builds to incredibly tense, and emotional finale.

Captain Phillips is based on the real life event in 2009 where Somali pirates hijacked the MV-Maersk Alabama, the first US ship to be hijacked in over 200 years.  Captain Richard Phillips (Hanks) is a man who does his job; he follows and gives orders based on the way he was raised, and time in which he was raised.  Muse (Abdi) is in a similar situation, according to the film, but on a different level.  Muse is controlled by warlords who force men to hijack ships in order to ransom the crew and cargo for money.  This real life event delves head first into the hijacking, and attempted rescue of Captain Phillips.

The film has three stars, Paul Greengrass, Tom Hanks, and Barkhad Abdi.  Let's start with Greengrass whose visionary direction guides this film.  Greengrass knows how to build the intensity his work on the second Bourne film, The Bourne Supremacy changed the landscape for the modern day action film.  Within the second and third Bourne films, the direction proved even more crucial guiding the film a well paced, action packed moments.  Greengrass knows how to ramp up the intensity.  While the Bourne films were mostly high octane, he honed his craft with United 93.  In United 93 Greengrass created a slow burn, that long anticipation of the real life hijacking on September 11, 2001.  

Put these two together, and you have Captain Phillips.  Greengrass is an excellent director, and his work on this film is proof he crafts some of the most intensely wrought, and well directed films within the 2000s.  Greengrass knows how to amp the action, but to create some fantastic performances from both stars like Hanks and Matt Damon, but also with people who have never acted before.

Hanks is the obvious standout; he is fantastic as he fights for his crew, stands up for himself and blends even mild comedic moments within this intense situation.  Hanks has not been nominated for an Oscar in 13 years for Cast Away, the last few moments of this film are proof this man is a fantastic actor, and sells the heartbreak, and may even make you shed a tear or two namely because he leaves you just as breathless.

The person many will walk away talking about is Abdi, who plays Muse; he has no previous credits to his name, but this Somali actor is a scene stealer.  While Muse attempts to gain respect from the other hijackers, there is a glimpse in his performance of pure conflict, should this be happening, do I believe in this, but he sells this performance strongly, look out for this man and his strong performance within this film.

Bill Ray who wrote the film creates a parallel with these two men, Captain Phillips and Muse, the script forces you to see the struggle of both of these men as connected.  There are moments where this does feel forced, or that this connection is strained, but the editing by Christopher Rouse, and the direction from Greengrass which pull this film together, and make it the tight thrilling journey in a complicated time.  Even if you are not a fan of the shakier camera you have to admire the way the films comes together and the style with which this film explains the modern day economic struggles in the present day.

While the script is not my favorite Ray does something more pointed than most scripts he turns this "action film" into a deeper more meaningful example of the of macro and micro economic effects on society.  Muse and Phillips are both deemed in American eyes as working stiffs.  The opening sequence points to Phillips as a working man trying to do right, make a living to provide for his family, and give them more than he had.  Muse cites himself as "just a fisherman" but as Phillips says he is more than that, and he is bogged down by the turmoil of his countries poverty.   You can even see the role societal military influence has, no spoilers here, but can four Somali pirates stand a chance battling the US Navy?

Captain Phillips is a great, and will remind audiences of the way in which taught thrillers can build to emotional and heartbreaking situations, based on the larger aspects of life.

October Movies to See and Skip! (2013)

September was kind of a lame duck month, Lee Daniel's The Butler capitalized on the lack of quality/adult films, and the film scored the elusive 100 million dollar mark.  I have a feeling that once this films score numerous Gold Globe nominations it will be re-released and make even more.

On to the actual September releases, the films with the largest weekends were Insidious 2, and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2.  Insidious 2 had a big drop off, and will not hit the level of The Conjuring, they opened at the same numbers.  Cloudy 2 is approaching its second weekend, the film could hold tight, but it will not be an amazing box office marker.  Prisoners was a small drama, with great marketing which made about 21 million its first weekend, look out for this film at awards shows, it was also the runner up for the audience prize at the Toronto International Film Festival.

I think Don Jon did well for its subject matter, but word of mouth is that its the porn film, but its so much more.  The film is good, go see it.  Rush seemed dead on arrival along with the forgotten The Family and Riddick.

Can October save things?  There are at least 4 major Oscar contenders being released this month, will they live up to the hype, and bring people to the movies?

October 4th 

Gravity is the best film I have seen so far this year.  Read my review here http://eternalthoughtsofkevinsmind.blogspot.com/2013/09/gravity-is-one-of-most-awe-inspiring.html Do not miss this film, beautiful.

If Runner Runner was intended to be a comedy, then I am in, being that the film is supposed to serious then I am going to pass on this, maybe Affleck and Timberlake should think a little more carefully about their acting choices.

October 11th

Captain Phillips is fantastic, a must see film.  Tom Hanks is great.  I will add that the initial trailer made me skeptical, but the television spots and second trailer sold me.  The film also got a standing ovation at the NY film festival.  The film is also a combination of Paul Greengrass (Bourne, United 93) and Tom Hanks win, win.

Machete Kills looks like it will be more of a cult hit so if you want stay ahead of the game with this new Robert Rodriguez film then head to the theatres.  I think it looks pretty funny.

Buzz on The Fifth Estate is that its a exciting (somewhat) and that Benedict Cumberbatch is great as Julian Assange the founder of Wikileaks, but this film apparently flounders in familiarity.  Asange is a complicated person, and I am not sure Bill Condon (Twilight) was the man for the job.

October 25th

Carrie is the only "scary" movie with a release date during this month, bad move.  The preview looks like a shot for shot remake of the original.  We saw how that played out for Gus Van Sant's Pyscho remake.  While Chloe Grace Moretz and Julianne Moore are well cast I can't imagine this story being necessary. 

If you are a fan of Stallone and and Schwarzenegger grasping for their action careers in their 60s and 70s than Escape Plan is the film for you, enough said.

Steve McQueen's film 12 Years a Slave is being marveled by critics, and is ahead in many prediction for the Oscars this year.  With a great cast, and being named the audience favorite (even with dark subject matter) at the Toronto Film Festival this is a must see film.

J.C. Chandor's follow up to Margin Call, entitled All is Lost starring Robert Redford looks less like a thriller and more like a meditative drama.  Reviews say that Redford is the star, and that this film could be his second acting nomination in his career. Go for Redford.

October 25th

I am not sure I like the way The Counselor is being marketed, and the whole "have you been bad" hash tag.  I admire Ridley Scott as a director, and Cormac McCarthy's work, but I have this guy feeling this film will flop.  McCarthy's material has been handled well (Coens-No Country for Old Men), and not as well (Hancock-The Road).  I imagine Scott will be more in the middle.

How do I say this without losing credibility, I saw the preview for Bad Grandpa, and laughed louder at the preview than any other in a long time.  I imagine all the funny parts are in the preview, I will probably watch this when it hits HBO.