Oscar Predictions (2017)

Best Picture
1-Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
2-The Shape of Water
3-Lady Bird
4-Get Out
5-Dunkirk
6-Call Me By Your Name
7-The Post
8-The Florida Project
9-The Big Sick
10-I, Tonya,


Best Director
1-Guillermo del Toro-The Shape of Water
2-Greta Gerwig-Lady
3-Martin McDonagh-Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri
4-Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
5-Jordan Peele-Get Out

Alt: Sean Baker-The Florida Project

Best Actor
1-Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
2-Timothee Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name
3-Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
4-Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
5-James Franco-The Disaster Artist

Alt. Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel Esq.

Best Actress
1-Frances McDormand-Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri
2-Saorsie Ronan-Lady Bird
3-Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
4-Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
5-Meryl Streep-The Post

Alt. Jessica Chastain-Molly's Game

Best Supporting Actor
1-Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri
2-Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
3-Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
4-Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri
5-Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me By Your Name

Alt. Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actress
1-Alison Janney-I, Tonya
2-Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
3-Holly Hunter-The Big Sick
4-Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
5-Tiffany Haddish-Girl's Trip

Alt. Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri

Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri

Best Make-Up/Hair styling
Darkest Hour
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Wonder

Best Production Design
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water

Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Best Original Song
Call Me By Your Name-The Mystery of Love
Coco-Remember Me
Cries from Syria-Prayers for this World
The Greatest Showman-This is Me
Mudbound-Mighty River

Best Sound Editing
Babe Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water 
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Mixing
Babe Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water 
Wonder Woman

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Okja
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

My 2017 Oscar Nominations

Best Picture

A Quiet Passion

Call Me By Your Name

Faces Places

The Florida Project

Get Out

Good Time

Lady Bird

The Lost City Of Z

Mudbound

Phantom Thread

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread

Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird

Luca Guadagnino-Call Me By Your Name

Jordan Peele-Get Out

Dee Rees-Mudbound

Ben and Josh Safdie-Good Time

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name*

Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread

Harry Dean Stanton-Lucky  

Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out

James Franco-The Disaster Artist

Robert Pattinson-Good Time

Best Actress

Vicky Kreips-Phantom Thread*

Cynthia Nixon-A Quiet Passion

Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird

Kristen Stewart-Personal Shopper

Haley Lu Richardson-Columbus

Daniela Vega-A Fantastic Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Willam Dafoe-The Florida Project

Armie Hammer-Call Me By Your Name

O’Shea Jackson Jr.-Ingrid Goes West

Jason Mitchell-Mudbound

Patrick Stewart-Logan

Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me By Your Name

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige-Mudbound

Tiffany Haddish-Girl’s Trip

Holly Hunter-The Big Sick

Lesley Manville-Phantom Thread

Elizabeth Marvel-The Meyerowitz Stories

Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me By Your Name

The Disaster Artist

Logan

The Lost City Of Z

Mudbound

Best Original Screenplay

A Quiet Passion

The Big Sick

Get Out*

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

Best Ensemble

The Big Sick

Get Out

Lady Bird

Mudbound*

Okja

Best Cinematography

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

The Lost City Of Z

Mudbound

Phantom Thread

Best Costume Design

The Beguiled

Call Me By Your Name

Phantom Thread

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Wonder Woman

Best Film Editing

Call Me By Your Name

A Ghost Story

Dunkirk

Get Out

Good Time

Best Production Design

Blade Runner 2049

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Wonder Woman

Best Make-Up/Hair-Styling

It

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Thor: Ragnorak

Best Original Score

A Ghost Story

Dunkirk

Good Time

Phantom Thread

Wonder Woman

Best Sound Mixing

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

Get Out

mother!

Phantom Thread

Best Sound Editing

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

mother!

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Wonder Woman

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

Okja

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

Dream Emmy Ballot 2017-Comedy Categories

Emmy voting is starting, and I have to say when it comes to the television Academy and comedy, they are all thumbs.  I had an incredibly hard time narrowing down my personal ballot in the comedy categories this year.  I could have added at least five (maybe more) women to Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Atlanta (FX)

Black-ish (ABC)

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (CW)

Fleabag (Amazon)

The Good Place (NBC)

Master of None (Netflix)

One Day at a Time (Netflix)

Atlanta would get my vote for the win here, but all of these shows are amazing, and deserve to make the cut. Realistically only Atlanta, black-ish, and Master of None stand a chance.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson-Black-ish

Aziz Ansari-Master of None

Rob Delaney-Catastrophe

Donald Glover-Atlanta

Thomas Haden Church-Divorce

William Jackson Harper-The Good Place

I will be blunt, while all of these men deserve to make the cut, finding there were not many contenders for these 6 spots. There have not been tons of strong male lead comedies on the air.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Rachel Bloom-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Tracee Ellis Ross-Black-ish

Justina Machado-One Day at a Time

Issa Rae-Insecure  

Catherine O’Hara-Schitt’s Creek

Gina Rodriguez-Jane the Virgin

Phoebe Waller-Bridge-Fleabag

I had to pick 8, there was just no one who could be cut from this list. There is so much talent out there, it was hard to not include Kristen Bell (The Good Place), Julia Louis Dreyfus (Veep), Lena Dunham (Girls) Tig Notaro (One Mississippi) to name a few.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Ted Danson-The Good Place

Tony Hale-Veep

Andrew Rannells-Girls

Lakeith Stanfield-Atlanta

Brian Tyree Henry-Atlanta

This is one of the most categories, and a fantastic group of men.  Hale has been the true stand out in this season of Veep.  I know many think it's Jonah, but this year is all Hale for me.  Brian Tyree Henry in B.A.N. just flawless, Lakeith David is so charming, and it's great to give Ted Danson new things to do in comedy.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

D’Arcy Carden-The Good Place

Donna Lynne Champin-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Jennifer Lewis-Black-ish

Rita Moreno-One Day at Time

Shakina Nayfack-Difficult People

Yvonne Orji-Insecure

Every performer in this group made me belly laugh on a regular basis. If any of these people (outside of Moreno because she truly has a deserving shot) makes the cut I would be shocked, but they are some of the most talent people in television.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Dan Bakkedahl-Veep

Brett Dier-Jane the Virgin

Daveed Diggs-Black-ish

Santino Fontana-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Matthew Rhys-Girls

Hugh Skinner-Fleabag

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Jane Adams-Atlanta

Becky Ann Baker-Girls

Carrie Fisher-Catastrophe

Sally Phillips-Veep

Stephanie Weir-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Kym Whitley-Master of None

Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series

Atlanta-The Jacket-Hiro Murai

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend -Where Is Josh’s Friend-Marc Webb

Girls-American Bitch-Richerd Shepard

The Good Place-Michael’s Gambit-Michael Schur

Master of None-New York, I Love You-Alan Yang

One Day at a Time-Quinces-Pamela Fryman

Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series

Atlanta-B.A.N.-Donald Glover

Black-ish-Lemons-Kenya Barris

Fleabag-Episode #1.2-Phoebe Waller-Bridge

The Good Place-Michael’s Gambit-Michael Schur

Insecure-Insecure as F***-Issa Rae and Larry Wilmore

Master of None-Thanksgiving-Aziz Ansari & Lena Waithe

Oscar Week 2017: Oscar Predictions

Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

La La Land is the clear front runner, lots of strong precursor traction, large nomination total, big box office, should walk away with this easy.

I will say that there is enough divisiveness that if Moonlight won, I would not be surprised, but I am not sure there is the same level of divisiveness that prevented The Revenant from winning, but again I am tempted to go out on a limb here but I will stay safe this year>

Will Win: La La Land 

Personal Pick: Moonlight

Best Director
Damien Chazelle-La La Land
Mel Gibson-Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan-Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villenueve-Arrival

Chazelle has this in the bag; he is well liked and respected.  I am a bit surprised Barry Jenkins did not win at least one major prize, but with a BAFTA snub Moonlight never had a chance to claim a director prize.  I think Chazelle has grown as a director, although I hated Whiplash, but he is talented.

Will Win: Damien Chazelle-La La Land 

Personal Pick: Barry Jenkins-Moonlight

Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert-Elle
Ruth Negga-Loving
Natalie Portman-Jackie
Emma Stone-La La Land
Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins

Based on the typical Best Actress aesthetic, Stone has this in the bag, she would be also be the first Lead Actress winner from a traditional movie musical since Liza Minnelli in Cabaret (I do not count Coal Miner's Daughter or Walk the Line as traditional movie musicals).

Stone is lovely in La La, and a talented actress.  Many are championing Portman as the threat, but I do not see it, I think Huppert or even Ruth Negga are the only challengers.  I am picking these two because they are lone nominations for their films, and people truly respect both performances.  I do not think either stands a chance, but they are the challengers.

Will Win: Emma Stone-La La Land

Personal Pick: Isabelle Huppert-Elle

Best Actor
Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling-La La Land
Viggo Mortensen-Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington-Fences

One of the toughest races to predict, which appears to be between Washington and Affleck, although never under estimate that strong support for both of these men could lead to surprise.

Washington has SAG on his side, they have picked the last 12 winners in this category.  His campaign in Oscar phase two was strong, he directed the film, and gave a tour de force performance.  Washington's snub at BAFTA is glaring, especially since BAFTA nominated Viola Davis and picked her to win, this is my big hesitation with his win.

Affleck won the Globe, BAFTA, and almost every critics award.

Based on the tone of the times and the baggage of Affleck's personal stuff I am leaning to Washington, it would be a crowning achievement for him, and it's his best performance I have ever seen him do.

Watch out for Gosling in a sweep, but I think (hope) the Academy will be more discerning.

Will Win: Denzel Washington-Fences

Personal Pick: Casey Affleck-Manchester (but either of the two deserve it)

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis-Fences
Naomie Harris-Moonlight
Nicole Kidman-Lion
Octavia Spencer-Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea

Will Win: Viola Davis-Fences (should be in lead besting Stone, because she would have)

Personal Pick: Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges-Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel-Lion
Michael Shannon-Nocturnal Animals

Ali v. Patel, and while many pundits are right, Patel has a shot since he won BAFTA, I think there is one glaring difference.  Lion was clearly much more of a BAFTA film, it was nominated for more awards than Moonlight (without Best Film) and won two prizes that night, including Adapted Screenplay.

I do have more confidence than most that this prize will go to Ali, i would not be surprised if Patel won, based on the size of his role.

Will Win/Personal Pick: Mahershala Ali-Moonlight

Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Moonlight won Original Screenplay at WGA, that shows the strength it needed to help make this prediction a little easier.  I could see Arrival or Lion sneaking in here too.

Will Win: Moonlight

Personal Pick: Arrival

Best Original Screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

It would be a travesty if La La Land won this in a sweep, the script is the weakest part of this well directed, visually lovely movie.  I could see it winning, but Oscar voters tend to go a little high brow, or artsy in Screenplay, this is where Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind won.

With that said, and people will laugh or disagree I think Original Screenplay is between Hell or High Water and Manchester by the Sea.  High Water is a film the Academy really seems to like, and this is one of the few places they could reward this film.  I think it's strong.

Manchester won BAFTA, which shows some cross over support, but it's loss to Moonlight at WGA shows vulnerability.  I am sticking with what makes the most sense, and going with Manchester by the Sea.

Will Win/Personal Pick: Manchester by the Sea 

Best Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America
Best Animated Feature: Zootopia
Best Foreign Language Feature: The Salesman
Best Cinematography: La La Land
Best Costume Design: Jackie
Best Film Editing: La La Land
Best Make-Up/Hair Styling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Production Design: Arrival
Best Original Score: La La Land
Best Original Song: Moana-How Far I'll Go
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Animated Short: Piper
Best Documentary Short: The White Helmets
Best Live Action Short: Sing

I am going out on a ledge in a few of the technical categories, and had La La Land winning 7, which is makes sense to me, and is a fine total.  I think the most it will win is 9.

My true "no guts no glory" down deep predictions are Hell or High Water in Original Screenplay, and Moonlight in Best Picture.

Oscar Week 2017: If I picked the Nominees (and Winners)

Best Picture

20^th Century Women

Arrival

Certain Women

Everybody Wants Some!!

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight*

OJ: Made in America

Silence

Toni Erdmann

The Witch

Best Director

Maren Ade-Toni Erdmann

Barry Jenkins-Moonlight*

Kenneth Lonnergan-Manchester by the Sea

Kelly Reichardt-Certain Women

Martin Scorsese-Silence

Dennis Villenueve-Arrival

Best Actor

Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea*

Adam Driver-Paterson

Collin Farrell-The Lobster

Andrew Garfield-Silence

Peter Simonischek-Toni Erdmann

Denzel Washington-Fences

Best Actress

Amy Adams-Arrival

Sonia Braga-Aquarius

Annette Bening-20^th Century Women*

Sandra Hueller-Toni Erdmann

Isabelle Huppert-Elle

Natalie Portman-Jackie

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali-Moonlight*

Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water

Alden Ehrenreich-Hail, Cesar!

Lucas Hedges-Manchester by the Sea

Andre Holland-Moonlight

Glen Powell-Everybody Wants Some!!

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis-Fences

Greta Gerwig-20^th Century Women

Lily Gladstone-Certain Women*

Naomi Harris-Moonlight

Janelle Monae-Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival-Eric Heisserer*

Certain Women-Kelly Reichardt

Elle-David Birke 

Moonlight-Barry Jenkins

Love and Friendship-Whit Stillman

Silence-Martin Scorsese, Jay Cocks

Best Original Screenplay

20^th Century Women-Mike Mills

Manchester by the Sea-Kenneth Lonergan*

Hell or High Water-Taylor Sheridan

The Lobster- Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos

Toni Erdmann-Maren Ade

The Witch-Robert Eggers

Best Ensemble

20^th Century Women

Fences 

Hidden Figures

Every Wants Some!!

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight*

Best Foreign Language Film

Aquarius

The Handmaiden

Elle

The Salesman

Toni Erdmann*

Best Documentary

The 13^th

Cameraperson

I am not your Negro

OJ: Made in America*

Weiner

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings*

Moana

Zootopia

Best Cinematography

Arrival

The Fits

Hell or High Water

Moonlight*

Silence

The Witch

Best Costume Design

The Handmaiden

Hail, Cesar! *

Hidden Figures

Jackie

Nocturnal Animals

Silence

Best Film Editing

Arrival

20^th Century Women

Cameraperson*

OJ: Made in America

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Best Original Score

Arrival*

The Fits

Jackie

La La Land

Moonlight

Swiss Army Man

Best Original Song

Hidden Figures-Runnin’

La La Land-City of Stars

Moana-How Far I’ll Go

Popstar-Incredible Thoughts

Sing Street-Drive it like you Stole it*

Best Make-Up/Hair Styling

Deadpool

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them*

Jackie

Hail, Cesar!

Star Trek Beyond

Best Production Design

Arrival

Hail, Cesar!

The Handmaiden*

Fences

Silence

The Witch

Best Sound Editing

Arrival*

Captain America: Civil War

Deepwater Horizon

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Silence

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

La La Land

Pop Star*

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects

Arrival*

Captain America: Civil War

Dr. Strange

Kubo and the Two Strings

Midnight Special