Thursday, January 19, 2017

Final 2017 Oscar Predictions

Image result for oscars 2017There is a lot that could happen next Tuesday January 24th, as the Academy voting period has changed predicting has become a little bit more difficult. There is one thing I can guarantee La La Land will be the most nominated film.

Changing the System

Before I get into my actual predictions, I am going to get on one of my soap boxes with the film industry, in particular the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science.  The system is broken because of the diversity of its members but it also broken because of the shortened timeline.  The Oscars used to be held in March, and the time for voting allowed a variety of movies to get their fair shake.  I wish AMPAS, and the other guilds would go back to this process in order to allow their membership to see more movies.  May this along with more diverse members would change things, may it would not, but I think these are important elements in honoring the "best."

I will also argue that they need to just force members to list 10 Best Picture nominees for nominations, no more of this there there could be anywhere between 5 and 10, it's idiotic.

The La La Land of it all

La La Land will likely join this group of Best Picture nominees (seen below), 6 of those 9 won Best Picture.  Gone with the Wind was the only film that won using the preferential ballot, it won 8 awards, the most any film has won with that system.

Films with 13 nominations - 9
Shakespeare in Love
Forrest Gump
Mary Poppins *
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *

The big question is will La La Land win as many? We will have to wait and see how the guilds/BAFTA play out. Listed below are my final predictions, I will no longer over think this!

Best Picture

1-La La Land
3-Manchester by the Sea
6-Hell or High Water 
Hidden Figures
8-Hacksaw Ridge 
(I am fairly certain there will be 8)
10-Nocturnal Animals 

The big question is how many Oscar nominees there will be this year.  I like to predict as if there would be 10, although that is rare these days.  My money is on the top 8.

Best Director
1-Damien Chazelle-La La Land
2-Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
3-Kenneth Lonnergan-Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneueve-Arrival
5-David Mackenzie-Hell or High Water 

6-Garth Davis-Lion 
Garth Davis is a solid spoiler for Lion; he has the Weinstein Company behind him and two DGA nominations this year, and he will win breakthrough.  DGA and Oscar rarely line-up and Villeneueve could be the vulnerable one, but that film has legs.  I have feeling Davis got in at DGA because of the larger voting body, and the fact that he made a big name for himself in TV.  Watch out for a director from a Foreign Language film, this branch increased membership there.

Best Actor
1-Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
Denzel Washington-Fences
3-Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge 
4-Ryan Gosling-La La Land
5-Viggo Mortensen-Captain Fantastic 

6-Jake Gyllenhaal-Nocturnal Animals

This feels like a solid five, and I am under estimating Nocturnal Animals across the board.  Although Jake Gyllenhaal could capitalize on his BAFTA nomination.  Animals does not feel like a movie AMPAS would go for, so I am happy with this five.

Best Actress
1-Emma Stone-La La Land
Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins
3-Amy Adams-Arrival
Natalie Portman-Jackie
Taraji P. Henson-Hidden Figures

6-Isabelle Huppert-Elle

I think this is a solid five too, but unlike Best Actor there is definitely the possibility for a spoiler. I know people are hell bent on Portman, but Jackie has under performed across the board.  I think actors will give her this one, but she is weaker.  I think the biggest spoiler is Taraji P. Henson for Hidden Figures, much like Samantha Morton for In America (a film the Academy loved with heart) she is the biggest possibility and a previous Oscar nominee.

Supporting Actor
1-Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
2-Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
Dev Patel-Lion 
4-Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkins
5-Aaron Taylor Johnson-Nocturnal Animals

Lucas Hedges-Manchester by the Sea

I think if anyone from Nocturnal Animals gets nominated over one of these five it's Shannon

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis-Fences Naomi Harris-Moonlight
2-Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea
3-Naomi Harris-Moonlight
4-Nicole Kidman-Lion
5-Octavia Spencer-Hidden Figures 

Janelle Monae-Hidden Figures 

Like Best Actor feels like a safe five, with a possibility of Monae getting in, but I think Octavia has that Hidden Figures spot.

Best Adapted Screenplay
4-Hidden Figures 

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Screenplay
1-Manchester by the Sea
La La Land
Hell or High Water 
The Lobster 
5-I, Daniel Blake 

Best Cinematography 
1-La La Land 

Best Costume Design
1-Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 
2-La La Land
3-Florence Foster Jenkins
5-The Dressmaker

Best Film Editing 
1-La La Land
2-Hacksaw Ridge
5-Manchester by the Sea

Best Make-Up/Hair
1-Star Treak: Beyond
2-A Man Called Ove
3-Hail, Cesar!

Best Production Design 
1-La La Land
2-Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 
4-Nocturnal Animals 
5-The Handmaiden 

Best Original Score
1-La La Land 
4-Nocturnal Animals 

Best Original Song 
1-La La Land-City of Stars
2-Moana-How Far I'll Go
3-La La Land-Audition
4-Hidden Figures-Runnin
5-Jim:The Jim Foley Story-The Empty Chair 

Best Sound Editing 
Deepwater Horizon 
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing
Deepwater Horizon 
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land 
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon 
Dr. Strange 
The Jungle Book 
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Animated  Film 
Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle 

Best Foreign Language Film 
Land of Mine 
A Man Called Ove 
The Salesman 
Toni Erdmann

Best Documentary (Feature) 
The 13th 
I am not your Negro
O.J. : Made in America 

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Frame 394
Joe's Violin
The Mute's House
The White Violin

Best Short Film (Animated) 
The Head Vanishes
Inner Workings
Pear Cider and Cigarettes

Best Picture Nomination Tally
La La Land-13
Manchester by the Sea-7
Hacksaw Ridge-5 
Hell or High Water-4 
Hidden Figures-4 

Sunday, January 8, 2017

Golden Globe Predictions (Film)

Image result for golden globes 2017 filmI will start by saying that Golden Globes can be predictable and they can throw some curve balls, last year Kate Winslet winning for Steve Jobs (and the screenplay winning) were two good examples from last year.

Another good example was Julian Schnabel winning Best Director for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, this happened to be during the writer's strike, but if it were televised I believe this could have pushed the film even further.  The film went on to score 4 Oscar nominations.

Tonight could propel Hacksaw Ridge (watch out for Gibson in Director or Garfield in Drama Actor).  I could also see Hell or High Water winning screenplay, Arrival winning Score.  The Globes love to spread the wealth in many ways, remember Birdman lost Best/Musical Comedy to Grand Budapest Hotel but won Best Screenplay and Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy.

Best Film (Drama)
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea

My money is on Moonlight winning here, I think the film will win more than one award.  I think Manchester by the sea is second here.

Will Win: Moonlight
Spoiler: Manchester by the Sea

Best Film Comedy/Musical
20th Century Women
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

La La Land could make a clean sweep but even Chicago did not do that here back in 2002, it won Best Film Comedy/Musical, and Actor and Actress, and lost everything else.  The Globes love musicals so it will win here, but they also spread the wealth.

Will Win: La La Land

Best Actor (Drama)
Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton-Loving
Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen-Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington-Fences

I believe this is a three person race, with many under estimating Andrew Garfield.  I am going to go with Affleck, but I think Garfield is in second place (especially since many voters may remember his performance in Silence too).  Fences under performed here and I think they will award Davis as the win for that film.

Will Win: Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
Spoiler: Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical
Annette Bening-20th Century Women
Lilly Collins-Rules Don't Apply
Hailee Steinfeld-Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone-La La Land
Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins

Bening would be my choice by a football field, but Stone is still a great pick.

Will Win: Emma Stone-La La Land

Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical
Collin Farrell-The Lobster
Ryan Gosling-La La Land
Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill-War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds-Deadpool

Gosling does not have this sewn up, I expect a "upset" here.  Florence Foster Jenkins has four nominations, and this is where I think it will pick up a win with Hugh Grant walking to the podium.

I also could see Reynolds winning for Deadpool, the film got a Comedy/Musical nomination.  They could go for Jonah Hill.  This one is a toss up.

Will Win: Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkin
Spoiler: Anyone but I would guess Ryan Reynolds, surprisingly the next most charming

Best Actress in a Drama
Amy Adams-Arrival
Jessica Chastain-Miss Sloane
Isabelle Hupper-Elle
Ruth Negga-Loving
Natalie Portman-Jackie

I know I will catch a lot of flack on this one, but I think this one room for a spoiler.  Jackie has under performed throughout awards season, although Portman did win at Critics Choice.  I think Huppert or Adams could spoil here.  This is my no guts, no glory pick.

Will Win: Amy Adams-Arrival
Spoiler: Natlaie Portman-Jackie (or Hupper)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg-Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel-Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson-Nocturnal Animals

Ali has been the big front runner this season, and I think he will win here, but Patel and Bridges could spoil.  I think the ever present Ali will win because he has been every where this year.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
 Spoiler: Dev Patel-Lio

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis-Fences
Naomie Harris-Moonlight
Nicole Kidman-Lion
Octavia Spencer-Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea

Davis is going to take this award season by storm!

Will Win: Viola Davis-Fences
Spoiler: Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea

Best Director
Damien Chazelle-La La Land
Mel Gibson-Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
Kenneth Lonnergan-Manchester by the Sea
Tom Ford-Nocturnal Animals

This is tougher to predict than people are admitting.  This could be part of the Chazelle award season landslide, but I think the Globes will throw this one to someone different.  Their Best Director winner is quite often a person whose film did not win.  This bodes well for Gibson, who looks to be a possible big time spoiler.

I am thinking this is a year they match and go with Jenkins.

Will Win: Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
Spoiler: Gibson then Chazelle

Best Film Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Nocturnal Animals

Screenplay can sometimes be the one off win, like Up in the Air, Her, or Midnight in Paris. The other type of Screenplay win will often go with an acting win (no film win), see Steve Jobs, Birdman, Django Unchained.  The other kind of win is the landslide which is rare

I think this year this will be Manchster, and Casey Affleck, but watch out for this going Hell or High Water.

Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Spoiler: Hell or High Water

Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life as a Zuchinni

They tend to go predictable in this category...

Will Win: Zootopia

Best Foreign Language Film
The Salesman
Ton Erdmann

Many of these films are French, or have split French origin, so will that split the vote? Maybe.

Will Win: Toni Erdmann
Spoiler: Elle or Neruda

Best Original Score
Hidden Figures
La La Land

The Globes appear to love those classic/iconic sounding scores (The Painted Veil), they will also pick more outside the box things too (The Social Network). I think this will go to La La Land, but watch out for Lion.

Will Win: La La Land
Spoiler: Lion

Best Original Song
La La Land-City of Stars
Moana-How Far I'll Go
Trolls-Can't Stop the Feeling

I am torn, will they try to get Lin Manuel or JT on stage, or go for the original music from a musical they clearly love?

Will Win: Moana-How Far I'll Go
Spoiler: La La Land-City of Stars